极端贫困人口数量正在再次下降

The number of people in extreme poverty is falling again But some of the damage of the past two years will be impossible to undo

极端贫困人口数量正在再次下降，但过去两年造成的一些损害将无法挽回

原文：https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/08/the-number-of-people-in-extreme-poverty-is-falling-again

IN NAIROBI, a motorbike taxi driver who spent months hiding from his landlord during the covid-19 lockdown will be back on the road in 2022 and beginning to repay his debt. A farmer in rural Zambia will be relieved that the local college has reopened and is buying up her crop for hungry students. In Delhi urban migrants who fled to their home villages when the city was shuttered will be back and looking for work.

在内罗毕，一个在新冠封锁期间花了数月躲避房东的摩的司机 ，在 2022 年即将重新上路接活，开始还债。赞比亚乡村里的一个农民将会松一口气，因为当地的大学重新开学了，正在为饿肚子的学生而尽数买下她的粮食。在德里，因市区封闭而逃回家乡的城市移民，即将返回城市，重新找工作。

Covid-19 plunged millions into poverty as countries went into lockdown, jobs dried up and people living in cramped, unsanitary housing struggled to keep the virus at bay. In the coming year, as lockdowns are lifted and economic activity restarts, many will be rebuilding their lives. At the end of 2020, the number of people living on less than $1.90 a day had increased to almost 750m, according to the World Data Lab’s World Poverty Clock, a predictive tool which includes World Bank and IMF data. By the end of 2022 they expect that number to edge back down towards where it was before the pandemic, around 685m.

新冠使数百万人陷入贫困，因为各国陷入封锁，工作机会消失，人们不得不待在拥挤、卫生堪忧的房子里，努力躲避病毒的侵袭。在接下来的一年里，随着封锁的解除和经济的重启，很多人将会重建他们的生活。根据世界数据实验室的世界贫困时钟，截至 2020 年年底，每日生活费不足 1.9 美元的人口已增至近 7.5 亿。世界贫困时钟是一种包含世界银行和国际货币基金组织数据的预测工具。到 2022 年年末，他们预计这个数字将小幅回落至疫情爆发前的 6.85 亿。

Progress will be slow. The IMF reckons economic growth in 2022 will pick up faster in some rich countries than in poor ones. And some of the damage done in the past two years will be impossible to undo. Skipping meals has developmental consequences for children. Missed health checks can lead to long-term illness. Those who sold a goat or a refrigerator in a panic will have to save for years to buy another.

进展将是缓慢的。国际货币基金组织估计 2022 年富国比穷国的经济增长恢复得更快。过去两年的一些损害将无法挽回。不吃饭对孩子们的发育有很大影响。错过体检可能会导致长期的疾病。那些在恐慌中卖掉山羊或冰箱的人将不得不攒几年钱才能买新的。

Globally, the pandemic has pushed lots of people in middle-income countries, many of whom lived just above the poverty line, back into penury. In 2020 and 2021, economists warned of a “re-Asianisation” of poverty as millions of Indians, in particular, faced fresh hardship. But, as the recovery takes hold, poverty will once again become concentrated in the poorest parts of sub-Saharan Africa and fragile states. By 2030, over 60% of those living on less than $1.90 per day will be in fragile states. Stable countries, meanwhile, are inching towards ending extreme poverty.

从全球来看，疫情让许多中等收入国家的人、那些生活水准比贫困线高一点的人，重新陷入穷困。在 2020 年和 2021 年，经济学家们警告，随着数百万印度人面临新的困难，贫困将「再次亚洲化」。不过，随着复苏走上正轨，贫困将再度集中于撒哈拉以南非洲最穷的地区以及脆弱的国家。到 2030 年，超过 60%每日生活费不足 1.9 美元的人将生活在那些脆弱的国家中。同时，平稳发展的国家正在逐步摆脱极端贫困。

Within nations, there is growing concern about poverty in cities. One in ten people who are poor in 2022 will be in urban areas. Many will be looking for work, doing things like cleaning homes and hawking street food. But jobs will be hard to find while consumer confidence remains weak and the threat of disease lingers. By late October 2021, some countries like Spain and Singapore had managed to vaccinate three-quarters of their population. But in others, like Ethiopia and Uganda, less than 1% of the population was fully jabbed. That discrepancy will persist into 2022 and beyond.

在国家内部，人们对于城市贫困的忧虑在日渐增长。在 2022 年，十分之一的贫困人口会生活在城市地区。很多人将会努力找一份工作，做一些诸如家庭保洁、沿街叫卖小食之类的事情。但在消费者信心依旧疲软以及疫情持续威胁的状况下，找工作仍将很困难。截至 2021 年 10 月下旬，一些国家如西班牙和新加坡已经让四分之三的人口接种了疫苗。但在其他国家，如埃塞俄比亚和乌干达，只有不到 1% 的人口接种了疫苗。这种差异将会持续到 2022 年及以后。

At the individual level, the gender gap continues to widen. Women, who are more likely to have precarious jobs, were hit hard by covid-19 lockdowns. The pandemic cost women around the world at least $800bn in lost income in 2020, according to Oxfam, a charity. Many who dropped out of school or lost their jobs won’t go back. Some have become wives and mothers sooner than they planned. There will be 121 women in poverty for every 100 men by 2030, according to UN Women, up from 118 in 2021.

从个人层面上来看，性别鸿沟将持续扩大。更依赖不稳定工作的女性，受到新冠封锁的打击更甚。根据慈善机构乐施会的统计，疫情导致全球女性在 2020 年至少损失了 8000 亿美元的收入。许多辍学和失业的女性没有重回正轨。一些人比原计划更早成为妻子和母亲。根据联合国妇女署的预计，到 2030 年，贫困女性与贫困男性的比例将从 2021 年的 118 比 100 增加到 121 比 100。

Yet it is not all doom and gloom. Governments across the globe introduced more than 3,300 social-protection measures between March 2020 and May 2021, according to the World Bank, including cash-transfer programmes targeting the poor. Rich countries are suspending sovereign-debt repayments to help protect such efforts. Ending extreme poverty is not impossible.

然而，未来也不全是悲观无望。根据世界银行的数据，从 2020 年 3 月到 2021 年 5 月，各国政府推出了超过 3300 项社会保障措施，包括旨在减少贫困的现金转移项目。为了保住这些努力的成果，富裕国家暂缓了国债的偿还。消除极端贫困并非不可能。

Hypothetically, it would take $100bn to make sure everyone on Earth had more than $1.90 a day. Aid and private philanthropy could cover that sum twice over, with money to spare.

按通常的假设，需要 1000 亿美元来保证全球所有人拥有每天 1.9 美元以上的收入。各种援助和私人慈善事业的闲置资金足以覆盖这个数额的两倍多。

生词与短语：

buy sth. up 全部（或尽量）买下某物；收购

plunge sb./sth/ into sth. 使经历，使陷入（不快的事情，不好的境地）

dry up （河流、湖泊）干涸；枯竭、耗尽

keep/hold sth. at bay 阻止某事发生，使某物不能接近

edge up/down 略微增加/减少

pick up 改善，好转，增强

take (a) hold (of) 开始完全控制，变得十分强大

inch 朝某方向慢慢移动

drop out （of sth.） 退学、辍学；退出

doom and gloom/gloom and doom 悲观无望，前景黯淡