2024 8/16 乌克兰入侵俄领土将如何影响战局

俄乌战场戏剧性转变：乌克兰入侵俄领土将如何影响战局

Ukraine’s Incursion Into Russia Reveals a Dramatic Shift

JULIAN E. BARNES, ERIC SCHMITT

2024年8月16日

这次入侵是乌克兰采取主动的一个例子，它暴露了俄罗斯的软弱，让俄罗斯总统普京感到尴尬。

Ukraine’s incursion into a sliver of Russia is likely to make it harder for Moscow to mount a major renewed offensive in Ukraine’s east and is the kind of surprise operation that could eventually impose real costs on the Kremlin, according to U.S. officials.

根据美国官员的说法，乌克兰对俄罗斯一小片领土的入侵可能会增加莫斯科在乌克兰东部再次发动大规模进攻的难度，而且这种出其不意的行动最终可能会让克里姆林宫付出实际的代价。

The Ukrainian strike, and its continued success, could ultimately have strategic significance, though U.S. officials caution that they will need to see how it plays out to draw firmer conclusions. It could also help rebuild sagging morale among Ukraine’s troops and war-weary population, the officials said.

乌克兰的这次打击及其不断取得的成功最终可能具有战略意义，但美国官员警告，他们需要观察事态的发展，才能得出更确切的结论。这些官员们表示，这可能也有助于恢复乌克兰军队和厌战民众的低落士气。

The incursion, into the Kursk region of Russia, stands in stark contrast to Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive in southern Ukraine last summer. This offensive was developed in secret, devised to divert Russian troops away from the front lines in Ukraine and seize territory to use as a bargaining chip.

这次对俄罗斯库尔斯克地区的入侵，与乌克兰去年夏天在乌克兰南部失败的反攻形成了鲜明对比。这次攻势是秘密筹划的，目的是把俄罗斯军队从乌克兰的前线引开，并夺取领土作为谈判筹码。

Ukraine’s monthslong buildup to the counteroffensive played out in the open. The Ukrainians had sought to retake territory but stumbled when they failed to punch through dug-in Russian defenses, which Moscow reinforced as Ukraine trained for the drive. Ukraine also split its forces during that offensive, against American advice, rather than focusing them as they have this month.

而上次反攻长达数月的准备工作，都是在众目睽睽之下进行的。乌克兰人曾试图夺回领土，但由于未能突破俄罗斯的防御工事而陷入困境，而莫斯科在乌克兰进行反攻训练时加强了俄罗斯的防御工事。在那次进攻中，乌克兰没有听从美国的建议，将兵力分散，而不是像本月那样集中行动。

But the incursion into Russia shows how Ukraine’s army has improved its mechanized warfare skills, techniques that it failed to master a year ago.

但此次突入俄罗斯表明乌克兰军队已经提高了机械化作战的能力，这是它一年前尚未掌握的技术。

删除

(选填) 图片描述

此次突入俄罗斯表明，乌克兰军队已经提高了机械化作战的能力，这是它一年前尚未掌握的技术。 David Guttenfelder

正在上传...71%

周一，乌克兰军队车辆在被摧毁的俄罗斯边境哨所附近行驶，路牌上写着“乌克兰”（左）和“俄罗斯”（右）。 David Guttenfelder

Since then, Ukraine has been looking for ways to rebound.

自那以后，乌克兰一直在寻找反击的办法。

The operation itself will not drive Russia to the bargaining table, according to U.S. officials. Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, has pledged not to negotiate while Ukraine occupies Russia, and American officials said he should be taken at his word.

据美国官员称，此次行动并不会促使俄罗斯坐到谈判桌前。俄罗斯总统普京已经放话，在乌克兰占领俄罗斯期间不会进行谈判，美国官员表示，他应该能说到做到。

But in public speeches, the C.I.A. director, William J. Burns, has spoken about the need to puncture the hubris of Mr. Putin. Russia will not make any concessions, he has said, until Mr. Putin’s overconfidence is challenged and Ukraine shows strength on the battlefield.

但在公开讲话中，中情局局长伯恩斯谈到有必要打击普京的狂妄。他表示，俄罗斯不会做出任何让步，除非普京的过度自信受到挑战，乌克兰在战场上显示出了实力。

Ukraine’s move into Kursk is one example of how it is taking the initiative, exposing Russian weakness and embarrassing Mr. Putin.

乌克兰在库尔斯克的行动就是它主动出击的例子，以此暴露俄罗斯的弱点，让普京感到尴尬。

American officials say Ukraine will have to build on the operation, with other daring operations that can push back against Russia’s sense that its victory is inevitable. Whether that will include more cross-border incursions, secret sabotage missions or other yet-to-be-planned operations remains to be seen.

美国官员表示，乌克兰必须这次行动的基础上再接再厉，采取其他大胆的行动，让俄罗斯认为胜利并非必然。这是否包括更多地侵入俄罗斯领土、秘密破坏任务或者其他目前尚未做出规划的行动还有待观察。

On Thursday, NATO’s top military commander, Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, said the incursion had succeeded so far. “Suffice it to say that it appears to be going quite well,” he said during a talk at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

周四，北约最高军事指挥官克里斯托弗·卡沃利上将表示，到目前为止，入侵行动取得了成功。他在位于纽约的外交关系委员会的一次演讲中表示：“可以说，进展似乎相当顺利。”

“They found an area of weakness in the Russians’ position, and they exploited it quickly and have exploited it very skillfully,” said General Cavoli, a four-star U.S. Army general who is a Russia specialist.

“他们发现了俄军布防的一个薄弱环节，并迅速加以利用，而且利用得非常巧妙，”美国陆军四星上将、俄罗斯问题专家卡沃利将军说。

His comments were the most expansive by an American official since Ukraine launched the attack last week. Biden administration officials have deferred most questions about the operation to Ukrainian officials.

自乌克兰上周发动袭击以来，这是美国官员就此事发表的最为详尽的言论。拜登政府官员一直把关于此次行动的大部分问题都推给乌克兰官员。

General Cavoli, who speaks regularly with his Ukrainian counterparts, said the operation had offered an important boost to Ukrainian morale after months of slow, grinding advances by Russia’s army in Ukraine’s east and south.

加沃利经常与乌克兰方面的同行交换意见，他表示，在经历了俄罗斯在乌克兰东部和南部数月缓慢推进之后，这次行动极大地鼓舞了乌克兰人的士气。

“It has had a very good galvanizing effect on the population and on the military itself,” he said.

“它对民众和军队自身都产生了非常好的激励效果，”他说。

On the flip side, General Cavoli said the attack blindsided the Kremlin and forced Moscow to scramble to mount a military response.

另一方面，加沃利也表示，此次攻击使克里姆林宫措手不及，迫使莫斯科匆忙组织军事回应。

“It’s had a shocking effect on the Russians,” the general said. “They’re shocked by it. That won’t persist forever. They’ll gather themselves together and react accordingly.”

“俄罗斯人被打懵了，”加沃利上将说。“他们震惊不已。这种情况不会持续太久。他们会重新振作起来，做出相应的反应。”

President Biden told reporters on Tuesday that Ukraine’s offensive inside Russia — the biggest foreign incursion into the country since World War II — has put the Kremlin in a bind. He acknowledged that U.S. officials have been in touch with their Ukrainian counterparts during the operation.

拜登总统在周二对记者表示，乌克兰在俄罗斯境内的攻势让克里姆林宫陷入困境，这是自第二次世界大战以来最大的一次外国侵入。他承认，美国官员在行动期间一直与乌克兰方面保持联系。

“It’s creating a real dilemma for Putin, and we’ve been in direct contact — constant contact — with the Ukrainians,” Mr. Biden said. “That’s all I’m going to say about it while it’s active.”

拜登表示，“这让普京陷入进退两难中，我们一直在与乌克兰人保持直接联系——持续联系。行动期间，我只想说这么多。”

Ukraine’s operation has also elicited giddy praise from Kyiv’s backers in Congress.

乌克兰的行动也得到了国会中基辅支持者的盛赞。

Senators Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, and Richard Blumenthal, Democrat of Connecticut, who met privately with President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv this week, urged increased military support for Ukraine.

南卡罗来纳州共和党参议员林赛·格雷厄姆和康涅狄格州民主党参议员理查德·布卢门撒尔本周在基辅与乌克兰总统连伦斯基举行了私下会面，两人敦促美国增加对乌克兰的军事支持。

Asked about the incursion at a news conference, Mr. Graham said: “What do I think about Kursk? Bold, brilliant and beautiful. Keep it up.” He added: “Putin started this. Kick his ass.”

在一个新闻发布会上，当被问及这次入侵时，格雷厄姆说：“我对库尔斯克行动的看法是什么？大胆、精彩、漂亮。保持下去。”他补充道：“这是普京挑起的。赶走他。”

Senior officials at the White House, the Pentagon and the State Department were blindsided by news reports, starting early last Wednesday, about the Ukrainian incursion. The Ukrainians did not tell the Americans about their plans in advance, possibly, U.S. officials said, because they feared the Americans would try to persuade them to call off the high-risk mission and because of Ukraine’s obsessive concern about leaks.

从上周三凌晨开始，有关乌克兰入侵的新闻报道让白宫、五角大楼和国务院的高级官员措手不及。美国官员说，乌克兰人没有提前告诉美国人他们的计划，可能是因为他们担心美国人会试图说服他们取消这项高风险的任务，也可能是因为乌克兰对泄密的极度担忧。

正在上传...13%

周一，在苏贾的一处俄罗斯边防哨所，乌克兰人抬着一具废墟中找到的俄罗斯士兵尸体。

周一，在苏贾的一处俄罗斯边防哨所，乌克兰人抬着一具废墟中找到的俄罗斯士兵尸体。 David Guttenfelder for The New York Times

正在上传...18%

周一，乌克兰的平民撤离组人员抬着77岁的莱莎·尤申科离开位于于纳基弗卡的家，这里距离俄乌边境大约八公里。

周一，乌克兰的平民撤离组人员抬着77岁的莱莎·尤申科离开位于于纳基弗卡的家，这里距离俄乌边境大约八公里。 David Guttenfelder for The New York Times

The lack of warning to Kyiv’s foremost Western ally took on even greater meaning when it became clear that Ukraine was using American-supplied vehicles, arms and munitions to help carry out the bold ground operation into Russia.

当乌克兰显然正在使用美国提供的车辆、武器和弹药来帮助对俄罗斯进行大胆的地面行动时，对基辅最重要的西方盟友没有发出警告的情况就变得更加意味深长了。

Unlike earlier over-and-back cross-border raids carried out by Ukrainian commandos, this operation has involved several thousand regular army forces equipped with mobile air defenses and electronic-warfare equipment to jam Russian radars — all signaling Ukraine’s intent to strike much deeper into Russia.

与乌克兰突击队之前进行的越境突袭不同，这次行动动用了数千名正规军，他们配备了机动防空系统和电子战设备，用于干扰俄罗斯的雷达——所有这些都表明，乌克兰打算对俄罗斯发动更深入的打击。

But American intelligence agencies, as disclosures last year showed, have known about Ukraine’s ambition to attack across the border for more than a year. So even if the timing and location were a surprise, the strategic goal was not.

然而，正如去年披露的信息所示，美国情报机构早已知晓乌克兰希望越过边界发起攻击的雄心。因此，即便时机和地点后知后觉，战略目标却并非如此。

One intelligence report posted on an internet forum by an Air National Guardsman included information about a meeting in which Mr. Zelensky prodded the military to consider a cross-border incursion. Mr. Zelensky, according to the report, wanted Ukrainian forces to “occupy unspecified Russian border cities.”

由一名空军国民警卫队成员在一个互联网论坛上发布的一份情报报告中提到，泽连斯基曾在一次会议上敦促军方考虑进行越境入侵。根据这份报告，泽连斯基希望乌克兰军队“占领未指明的俄罗斯边境城市”。

And indeed, recent policy shifts by the Biden administration made the operation possible.

事实上，拜登政府最近的政策转变使这一行动成为可能。

Under pressure from his advisers and key allies, Mr. Biden in late May authorized Ukraine to conduct limited strikes inside Russia with American-made weapons, opening what was expected to be a new chapter in the war for Ukraine.

在顾问和重要盟友的压力下，拜登于5月底授权乌克兰用美制武器在俄罗斯境内进行有限打击，从而揭开了乌克兰战争的新篇章。

Mr. Biden’s decision appeared to be the first time that an American president had allowed limited military responses on artillery, missile bases and command centers inside the borders of a nuclear-armed adversary.

拜登的决定似乎是美国总统第一次允许在有核对手的边界内，对炮兵、导弹基地和指挥中心进行有限的军事反应。

White House officials insisted, however, that the authorization extended only to what they characterized as acts of self-defense to cross-border threats, so that Ukraine could protect Kharkiv, its second-largest city, and the surrounding areas from Russian missiles, glide bombs and artillery shells from just over the border. The White House still barred Ukraine from using long-range precision American artillery to attack air bases and other targets deep inside Russia.

然而，白宫官员坚称，授权只适用于他们所称的针对跨境威胁的自卫行动，以便乌克兰保护其第二大城市哈尔科夫及其周边地区，免受来自边境另一侧的俄罗斯导弹、滑翔炸弹和炮弹的袭击。白宫仍然禁止乌克兰使用美国的远程精确火炮攻击俄罗斯境内的空军基地和其他目标。

That U.S. policy came under immediate scrutiny after the Ukrainian incursion. Pentagon and State Department officials have said the use of American-supplied weapons and munitions in the attack by Ukraine did not violate U.S. policy.

乌克兰入侵乌克兰后，美国的这一政策立即受到审查。五角大楼和国务院官员表示，乌克兰在袭击中使用美国提供的武器和弹药并没有违反美国的政策。

Other than Mr. Biden’s comments, senior administration officials have publicly declined to comment on the incursion itself, referring all questions to Ukraine.

除了拜登的评论，政府高级官员公开拒绝对入侵本身置评，并表示有关问题应有乌克兰方面来回答。

周二，俄罗斯库尔斯克的一座建筑被落下的导弹碎片损坏。

周二，俄罗斯库尔斯克的一座建筑被落下的导弹碎片损坏。 Nanna Heitmann for The New York Times

Ukrainian officials have told senior American civilian and military leaders that the goal of the operation is to create an operational dilemma for the Russians — to force Moscow to divert troops off the front lines in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine that have made slow but steady progress for weeks.

乌克兰官员告诉美国高级文职和军方领导人，此次行动的目标是让俄罗斯在行动上陷入困境，迫使莫斯科将军队从乌克兰东部顿涅茨克地区的前线调离。几周来，那里的战事进展缓慢但较稳定。

John F. Kirby, a White House spokesman, said on Thursday that Moscow had “redirected” some troops from Ukraine to Russia but that he did not know how many troops were involved or what role the redeployed troops would play.

白宫发言人约翰·柯比周四表示，莫斯科已将部分部队从乌克兰“调往”俄罗斯，但他不知道涉及多少部队，也不知道重新部署的部队将扮演什么角色。

U.S. officials said on Wednesday that Russia had withdrawn some infantry units from Ukraine and was sending them to Kursk to help defend against the Ukrainian offensive. They would not say how many troops Russia appeared to be moving or exactly where they were coming from.

美国官员周三表示，俄罗斯已经从乌克兰撤出了一些步兵部队，并将他们派往库尔斯克，以帮助抵御乌克兰的进攻。他们不愿透露俄罗斯似乎调动了多少部队，也不愿透露这些部队究竟来自哪里。

But the officials said they had not yet seen the Kremlin divert armored battalions and other combat power that they believe Russia would need to repel the incursion.

但官员们表示，他们还没有看到克里姆林宫调动他们认为俄罗斯击退入侵所需的装甲营和其他作战力量。

Still, Moscow has had to commit its existing reserves in Russia to the Kursk fight and will need to commit more forces if it is to drive out the Ukrainians. Those forces, American officials said, would have otherwise been used in the coming months for Russia’s slow, grinding offensives in eastern Ukraine.

尽管如此，莫斯科不得不将其在俄罗斯的现有储备投入库尔斯克之战，如果要驱逐乌克兰人，还需要投入更多的兵力。美国官员表示，这些部队本来会在接下来的几个月里用于俄罗斯在乌克兰东部缓慢而艰难的进攻。

It is doubtful Ukraine will have enough forces to capitalize on any Russian weakness in Donetsk. Ukraine has used a significant number of troops itself in Kursk and may not have adequate reserves. More important, American officials have counseled the Ukrainians against major offensives this year in the south or east, given the strength of Russian defenses.

乌克兰是否有足够的力量利用俄罗斯在顿涅茨克的任何弱点令人怀疑。乌克兰在库尔斯克动用了大量军队，可能没有足够的后备力量。更重要的是，鉴于俄罗斯的防御力量，美国官员建议乌克兰今年不要在南部或东部发动大规模进攻。

By attacking in Kursk, the Ukrainians have taken American advice: Rather than fight through entrenched positions, go where the enemy is not to secure the strategic ground.

通过进攻库尔斯克，乌克兰人采纳了美国人的建议：与其到对方有充分准备的地方，不如到防御空虚的地方作战，从而打下战略基础。

How strategic the push proves to be will only be known in time.

这一举措的战略意义有多大，只有时间才能证明。

The Kursk operation also aims to seize and hold territory to increase Ukraine’s bargaining leverage, American officials say they have been told, perhaps to swap Russian territory for the land near Kharkiv that Russian forces took in the spring.

美国官员表示，他们被告知，库尔斯克行动的另一个目的是夺取并控制领土，以增加乌克兰讨价还价的筹码，或许是为了用俄罗斯的领土，换取俄罗斯军队今年春天占领的哈尔科夫附近的土地。

American officials expressed surprise at how successful the Ukrainian operation has been so far, and how slow and disjointed the Russian response has been.

美国官员对乌克兰的行动迄今如此成功，以及俄罗斯的反应如此缓慢和脱节表示惊讶。

One senior U.S. official called the incursion a “Syrsky Special” — alluding to Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, who took over as Ukraine’s top military commander in February. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal American assessments, said it was the flashy kind of operation that Mr. Zelensky loves.

一名美国高级官员称这次入侵是“叙尔斯基特供”，叙尔斯基是指今年2月接任乌克兰最高军事指挥官的亚历山大·叙尔斯基。由于讨论的是美国内部的评估，这名官员要求匿名。他说，这是泽连斯基喜欢的那种华而不实的行动。

But U.S. officials also said that they continued to take a wait-and-see attitude.

但美国官员们也表示，他们继续采取观望态度。

One senior U.S. official called the operation a big gamble.

一位美国高级官员称这次行动是一场豪赌。

Julian E. Barnes是一名国家安全记者，常驻华盛顿，报道情报机构新闻。2018年加入时报之前，他为《华尔街日报》报道安全相关议题。

Eric Schmitt是时报国家安全记者，主要关注美军事务以及海外反恐议题，他报道此类新闻已超过三十年。

翻译：杜然、晋其角