（中文全名单）Ladbrokes公布的2013年诺贝尔文学奖赔率
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鹿鸣之什 2013-10-11 11:10:55
译林出版社宣传主管周璇则告诉记者，门罗的7部重要短篇集《快乐影子舞》、《恨、友谊、追求、爱、婚姻》、《太多的欢乐》、《少女和女人的生活》、《公开的秘密》、《一个善良女子的爱》和《爱的进程》也将由译林出版社出版。她表示：“门罗一直是译林关注的对象，这一揽子作品的引进版权早在今年上半年就已基本上谈妥，出版社将首先出版《公开的秘密》一书，译者之一为秦俟全。预计最快于今年年底前同中国读者见面。其他尚未有中译本的作品将安排最合适的译者开始翻译工作，预计明年陆续出版。”
不过记者注意到，两家出版社同时持有其中多部作品的版权，令人担心是否涉及侵权。对此质疑，江苏人民出版社表示，译林方可能买下的是版权到期后下一阶段的版权，而译林方则表示，江苏人民的这几本版权今年春天到期，版权代理已经给他们发了版权中止函。 http://ndfinance.oeeee.com/html/201310/11/361641.html
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一张十万块 2013-10-11 11:41:14
译林出版社宣传主管周璇则告诉记者，门罗的7部重要短篇集《快乐影子舞》、《恨、友谊、追求、爱 译林出版社宣传主管周璇则告诉记者，门罗的7部重要短篇集《快乐影子舞》、《恨、友谊、追求、爱、婚姻》、《太多的欢乐》、《少女和女人的生活》、《公开的秘密》、《一个善良女子的爱》和《爱的进程》也将由译林出版社出版。她表示：“门罗一直是译林关注的对象，这一揽子作品的引进版权早在今年上半年就已基本上谈妥，出版社将首先出版《公开的秘密》一书，译者之一为秦俟全。预计最快于今年年底前同中国读者见面。其他尚未有中译本的作品将安排最合适的译者开始翻译工作，预计明年陆续出版。” 不过记者注意到，两家出版社同时持有其中多部作品的版权，令人担心是否涉及侵权。对此质疑，江苏人民出版社表示，译林方可能买下的是版权到期后下一阶段的版权，而译林方则表示，江苏人民的这几本版权今年春天到期，版权代理已经给他们发了版权中止函。 http://ndfinance.oeeee.com/html/201310/11/361641.html ... 鹿鸣之什看到这条新闻更加深了我的怀疑，很可能这是凤凰出版集团的商业攻略，先通过纠纷制造舆论热点，再趁机火速出版赚一笔快钱，最后由译林出版新译本收割市场。我不相信版权到底怎样两家出版社会不清楚，凤凰集团在背后没有动作
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一张十万块 2013-10-12 10:44:06
这几天翻了下《逃离》，之前确实未读，门罗的短篇人物前后勾连，有点像福克纳的小说，之前的人物会在后几篇中继续出现，可以把它当成系列短篇或者新颖的长篇，这种不断绵延的生活流写法很棒
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antho🌈 2013-10-15 20:03:10
今年得主不算失望，但是私人来说更希望是同国的另一位女作家问鼎。在这里大胆猜测一下明年的得主。最有可能的当然是欧洲非英语国家/作家得奖，尤其是小语种更占优势，同时女作家的可能性大大降低，所以给出了以下三位： Peter Nadas 彼得·纳达斯（匈牙利) Antonio Lobo Antunes 安东尼奥•罗伯•安图内斯（葡萄牙） Cees Nooteboom 塞斯•诺特博姆（荷兰） 纳达斯常年陪跑，相对本国，在德语文坛其更受重视，经过桑塔格推荐在美国也有美誉，匈牙利语算小语种，且未有过诺奖得主，从近两年来看，诺奖有意在填补那些未被青睐的国家，同理，荷兰（语）的塞斯也多了一份筹码。离萨拉马戈获奖葡萄牙（语）也有十五年未有得主了，安图内斯地位及成就据葡语研究者称不低于萨拉马戈，其关注的战争、前葡国殖民地等题材都是诺奖评委所中意的。 除开欧洲，就是中亚是非地了，结合这几年世界局势，依诺贝尔奖的”人道主义“以及政治色彩，给出两位： Amos Oz 阿摩司·奥兹（以色列） Adonis 阿多尼斯（叙利亚/黎巴嫩） 阿多尼斯以及奥兹都是这几年的热门，诗人和小说家，显然后者更有可能，毕竟特朗斯特罗姆得奖不久，且诺奖青睐诗人的传统从近年来看慢慢转向小说家了。这两位依据我的感觉，只可能有一位能获奖，一旦一位获奖，另一位只怕今生无望了。 我记得莫言获奖时，瑞典文学院是加强了与美国的联系，而今年北美门罗传出的是与非洲的联系加强，若是慢一年的节奏，今年非洲依旧热门，所以给出三位： Nuruddin Farah 努鲁丁•法拉赫（索马里） Ngugi Wa Thiog'o 恩古吉•瓦•提安哥（肯尼亚） Ben Okri 本·奥瑞克（尼日利亚） 之所以排除杰巴尔，是考虑今年是女性，而不是怀起其重要性，之所以三位都是黑肤色的作家，因为非洲已有的四位得主中，只有索因卡为黑人，库切和戈迪默都是混血，所以我认为黑人作家更有可能，但也可能是我一厢情愿了。恩古吉算阿契贝同代人，虽不及前者，但是常年旅居美国，影响不小，况且阿契贝已作古，不能一失再失，虽然诺贝尔做得够多了。而法拉赫与奥克瑞都算是更年轻一辈的作家，但是在西方影响都很大，如果获奖的话感觉和帕慕克一样，来日方长。 历史上同一大洲连年获奖的情况几乎都出现在欧洲，但是有过欧洲的先例就无法排除北美不会发生，同一国家却几乎不可能，所以给出两位美国作家： Thomas Pynchon 托马斯·品钦（美） Philip Roth 菲利普·罗斯（美） 前者个人超级喜欢，也强烈希望，同时觉得给不给他都无所谓，具体要给他的原因请看之前在这帖子的发言，后者却是最有可能的美国作家。之所以没给出其他重量级美国作家，毕竟同一洲概率也不那么大，且针对美国文学的狭隘论毕竟是文学院给出的，自己打自己嘴巴也不容易。 最后给出Salman Rushdie 萨尔曼•拉什迪（英），虽说之前有类似的马尔克斯《百年孤独》格拉斯《铁皮鼓》珠玉在前（之所以这样说，读过《午夜之子》就会明白），却也丝毫掩不住拉什迪的光芒，觉得其争议性也是对伊斯兰原教旨主义的批评，至少本人不喜欢太过激进的宗教。作为后殖民/世界作家巨擘，撇开政治，算起来泰戈尔获奖几乎快一个世纪了，印度（裔）作家群近年的崛起，有印度血统的拉什迪也算佼佼者。
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雨王拧发条鱼 (Je m'en vais) 2013-10-15 20:56:48
我在这里问个问题。。
你们知不知道“20世纪西班牙语小说排行榜"这个东东啊，好像张永义有篇文章专门讲过诶http://tieba.baidu.com/p/74860643 但只有前15
好像又被称作 “20世纪最佳100部西班牙语小说”，译林社宣传蜘蛛女之吻时提过 http://book.douban.com/subject/23019253/
问题是——我用中英文搜索都没搜到，可否赐教 = =
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antho🌈 2013-10-15 21:04:15
读过两本巴恩斯，个人感觉他像是用英语写作的法国作家，当然他是有资格的，只是比他好的还是有的，看他有没有被瑞典文学院中意的能被标榜的“理念或者风格”。说到今年是”功勋级“作家，那明年更有可能是所谓偏门”冷门“作家，诺奖不是喜欢“发现”一些作家，再时不时给一些已有定论的作家锦上添花来证明自身么。
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antho🌈 2013-10-15 21:17:42
我也想知道，看过张永义的文章后更有兴趣了，毕竟这些名字都如雷贯耳了，尤其巴斯托斯《我，至高无上者》、因方特《三只悲伤的老虎》、利马《天堂》、萨多依《眼镜蛇》还有一本阿根廷作家Leopoldo Marechal的《亚当布宜诺斯艾利斯》都是未有过中译本的杰作甚至神作了。貌似还有一份近二十五年来最佳西语小说的排名书单，西语尤其拉美作家真是了不起啊，而塞拉前几年爆出抄袭，对其好感瞬间全无了。
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雨王拧发条鱼 (Je m'en vais) 2013-10-15 21:23:07
Top 20 Spanish-Language Novels Written Since 1982
This list is taken from the Colombian magazine Semana’s list of the best 100 Spanish-language novels of the last 25 years. The list was published in 2007.
- Love in the Time of Cholera by Gabriel García Márquez
“In their youth, Florentino Ariza and Fermina Daza fall passionately in love. When Fermina eventually chooses to marry a wealthy, well-born doctor, Florentino is devastated, but he is a romantic. As he rises in his business career he whiles away the years in 622 affairs–yet he reserves his heart for Fermina. Her husband dies at last, and Florentino purposefully attends the funeral. Fifty years, nine months, and four days after he first declared his love for Fermina, he will do so again. ”
- The Feast of the Goat by Mario Vargas Llosa
From the Publishers Weekly review: “This wasn’t an enemy he could defeat like the hundreds, the thousands he had confronted and conquered over the years, buying them, intimidating them, killing them.” So thinks Rafael Trujillo, “the Goat,” dictator of the Dominican Republic, on the morning of May 30, 1961 a day that will end in his assassination. The “enemy” is old age at 70, Trujillo, who has always prided himself on his grooming and discipline, is shaken by bouts of incontinence and impotence. Vargas Llosa divides his narrative between three different story lines. The first concerns Urania Cabral, the daughter of one of Trujillo’s closest associates, Agustín Cabral. She is 14 at the time of the Trujillo assassination and, as we gradually discover, was betrayed by her father to Trujillo. Since then, she has lived in the U.S. At 49, she impulsively returns on a visit and slowly reveals the root of her alienation.”
- The Savage Detectives by Roberto Bolano
In the novel that established his international reputation, Roberto Bolaño tells the story of two modern-day Quixotes—the last survivors of an underground literary movement, perhaps of literature itself—on a tragicomic quest through a darkening, entropic universe: our own. The Savage Detectives is an exuberant, raunchy, wildly inventive, and ambitious novel from one of the greatest Latin American authors of our age.
- 2666 by Roberto Bolano
Three academics on the trail of a reclusive German author; a New York reporter on his first Mexican assignment; a widowed philosopher; a police detective in love with an elusive older woman–these are among the searchers drawn to the border city of Santa Teresa, where over the course of a decade hundreds of women have disappeared. In the words of The Washington Post, “With 2666, Roberto Bolaño joins the ambitious overachievers of the twentieth-century novel, those like Proust, Musil, Joyce, Gaddis, Pynchon, Fuentes, and Vollmann, who push the novel far past its conventional size and scope to encompass an entire era, deploying encyclopedic knowledge and stylistic verve to offer a grand, if sometimes idiosyncratic, summation of their culture and the novelist’s place in it. Bolaño has joined the immortals.”
- News from the Empire by Fernando Del Paso
One of the acknowledged masterpieces of Mexican literature, Fernando del Paso’s News from the Empire is a powerful and encyclopedic novel of the tragic lives of Maximilian and his wife, Carlota, the short-lived Emperor and Empress of Mexico. Simultaneously intimate and panoramic, the narrative flows from Carlota’s fevered memories of her husband’s ill-fated empire to the multiple and conflicting accounts of a broad cast of characters who bore witness to the events that first placed the hapless couple on their puppet thrones, and then as swiftly removed them. Stretching from the troubled final years of Maximilian’s life to the early days of the twentieth century, News from the Empire depicts a world of both political and narrative turbulence, and is as much a history of the advent of modernity as a eulogy for the corrupt royal houses of Europe.
- A Heart So White by Javier Marias
A Heart So White is a breathtaking novel about family secrets, winner of the 1997 Dublin IMPAC Prize for the best novel published worldwide in English, and arguably Javier Marías’s masterpiece. Javier Marías’s A Heart So White chronicles with unnerving insistence the relentless power of the past. Juan knows little of the interior life of his father Ranz; but when Juan marries, he begins to consider the past anew, and begins to ponder what he doesn’t really want to know. Secrecy—its possible convenience, its price, and even its civility—hovers throughout the novel. A Heart So White becomes a sort of anti-detective story of human nature.
- Bartleby & Co. by Enrique Vila-Matas
In Bartleby & Co., an enormously enjoyable novel, Enrique Vila-Matas tackles the theme of silence in literature: the writers and non-writers who, like the scrivener Bartleby of the Herman Melville story, in answer to any question or demand, replies: “I would prefer not to.” Addressing such “artists of refusal” as Robert Walser, Robert Musil, Arthur Rimbaud, Marcel Duchamp, Herman Melville, and J. D. Salinger, Bartleby & Co. could be described as a meditation: a walking tour through the annals of literature. Written as a series of footnotes (a non-work itself), Bartleby embarks on such questions as why do we write, why do we exist?
- Santa Evita by Tomas Eloy Martinez
Nothing could be stranger than the true story of Eva Peron, who began her career as a B-movie actress, won the love of a dictator and the adoration of a nation, and, in death, achieved virtual sainthood status. Out of these facts, Eloy Martinez has crafted a work of fiction that is at once tragic, savagely funny, perversely erotic, and intellectually provocative.
- Tomorrow in the Battle Think On Me by Javier Marias
From the Kirkus review: “Another intriguing psychodrama of sex, guilt, and social satire from the prize-winning Spanish author whose fiction in English translation includes All Souls and A Heart So White (both 1996). First published in 1994, this novel (which has itself won major international literary awards) explores the engagingly dysfunctional mind and heart of Victor Frances, a successful screenwriter, and a bland usurper of things and people that don’t belong to him–not unlike Shakespeare’s Richard III (the source of Mar¡as’s exceedingly witty title). The novel begins with a bang, so to speak, when Victor’s mistress Marta De n dies of a heart attack in bed, precluding their usual lovemaking–and it then spins off into amusingly unpredictable directions as Victor observes Marta’s funeral from a safe distance.”
- El Desbarrancadero (“The Edge of the Abyss”) by Fernando Vallejo
From Publishers Weekly: “A Colombian-born writer based in Mexico City, Vallejo received considerable worldwide recognition when his last novel, La virgen de los sicarios (Our Lady of the Assasins was made into a film by the acclaimed Barbet Schroeder. Just as dark as La virgen, this semi-autobiographical novel is set in the author’s native city, Medell!n. The narrator (called Vallejo) returns home after a prolonged absence to attend to his most beloved brother, Dario, an AIDS patient whose health is slowly deteriorating owing to his alcohol and marijuana use. Vallejo indulges in digressions into past memories that they both share, which include endless adolescent partying and homosexual love affairs. La Muerte (Death), the character around whom the narrative ultimately revolves, appears throughout, touching different members of Vallejo’s family and finally becoming his worst enemy.”
- Our Lady of the Assassins by Fernando Vallejo
From Publishers Weekly: “This slim, cynical novel by a well-regarded Colombian writer is an unsparing exploration of Medell¡n, Colombia’s second largest city and the infamous stronghold and resting place of drug lord Pablo Escobar. The narrator is a “grammarian,” who has recently returned to his hometown after many years abroad and discovers it has become a living nightmare, where music blares constantly, funerals are less important than soccer matches and a wayward glance is likely to get you killed. In a virtually unbroken dramatic monologue, the narrator recounts a love affair he once had with Alexis, a teenage hitman who carries out revenge killings for rival drug gangs. Post Escobar, the hitmen are disorganized and undisciplined, and they wreak havoc on the city.”
- The Witness by Juan José Saer
Le Monde: “Saer’s novel combines elements of the haunting metaphysical ambiguity of Jorge Luis Borges’ poetry and Graham Greene’s sensual description of the dark corners of the physical world and the human soul. The evocative imagery and ideas revealed in The Witness are not easily forgotten’ Washington Post ‘Let me make myself clear: The Witness is a great book and the name of its author, Juan Jose Saer, must be added to the list of the best South American writers.”
- Soldiers of Salamis by Javier Cercas
In the final moments of the Spanish Civil War, a writer and founding member of Franco’s Fascist Party is about to be shot, and yet miraculously escapes into the forest. When his hiding place is discovered, he faces death for the second time that day-but is spared, this time by a lone Republican soldier. The writer becomes a national hero and a member of Franco’s first government, while the soldier is forgotten. Sixty years later, Cercas’s novel peels back the layers of truth and propaganda in order to discover who the real hero was. Winner of the Independent Prize in Foreign Fiction.
- Distant Star by Roberto Bolano
From Wikipedia: “The main character, observed by an unnamed narrator, in Roberto Bolaño’s Distant Star is Alberto Ruiz-Tagle, who exploits the 1973 coup to launch his own version of the New Chilean Poetry: a multi-media enterprise involving sky-writing, torture, photography, murder, and verse. The unnamed narrator first encounters him in a college poetry workshop (where Ruiz-Tagle only has eyes for the beautiful Garmendia twins, Veronica and Angelica: unfortunately for them).”
- Landscapes After the Battle by Juan Goytisolo
From Publishers Weekly: “This engaging, gritty satire by Goytisolo, an outstanding Spanish novelist who left during Franco’s regime, offers a skewed tour of the tough new Paris street life radiating outward from the neighborhood of the Sentier metro. In 78 rapid-fire vignettes, the hero as monster’ in trench coat and felt hat sets out from his studio on the Rue Poissonniere to indulge in his ‘maniacal, obsessive, almost canine nosing about.’”
- The City of Marvels by Eduardo Mendoza
From Publishers Weekly: “Barcelona, chief city of Catalonia (historically a hotbed of anarchist and separatist activity) plays the role of a magical, protean character in this sprightly novel, a bestseller in Spain. The action spans the years between Barcelona’s two economically disastrous World’s Fairs of 1888 and 1929. Young Onofre Bouvila ventures from his parents’ provincial farm to work in the city, where he begins his political involvement by distributing revolutionary pamphlets on the fairgrounds. Aided by the giant Efren, he becomes a con-man who sells hair oil, serves underworld boss Don Humbert, arranges for rivals to be bumped off, and marries the Don’s lovely daughter, Margarita.”
El jinete polaco by Antonio Munoz Molina
El Testigo by Juan Villoro
From The Quarterly Conversation: “Time proceeds at two speeds for Julio Valdivieso. The past overflows his present at a contemplative speed, a speed that allows for extended metaphors, nuanced conjectures, literary allusions, and an associative style of narration that can, for instance, start us with the embarrassed smile of Nieves, his cousin and first love, and then effortlessly transition into (i) a gypsy squirting breast milk at his wife Paola in Rome, (ii) his outings to a porn cinema in Leuven, (iii) a stanza from Ramon Lopez Velarde, (iv) Amphitrion’s visit to Tiresias, (v) a meditation on the principle of uncomfortableness in pornographic films, (vi) a playful masochistic refrain of Nieves, and (vii) the awkward smile of Julio’s favorite porn actress as sperm lands on her eyelid. Meanwhile, in the present, everyone in Mexico is trying to enlist Julio to their frantic plotlines. Julio resists these advances, although they will become unavoidable midway through the novel, in part because they explore so many unavoidable aspects of Mexican life, including the omnipresence of the drug cartels and the agonies of Catholicism, as well as more historical aspects like a Christian uprising against the revolution and Mexico’s national poet. The scope of El Testigo is tremendous. It isn’t surprising that Alvaro Enrigue at Letras Libres has called it The Great Mexican Novel. ”
- Beauty Salon by Mario Bellatin
A strange plague appears in a large city. Rejected by family and friends, some of the sick have nowhere to finish out their days until a hair stylist decides to offer refuge. He ends up converting his beauty shop, which he’s filled with tanks of exotic fish, into a sort of medieval hospice. As his “guests” continue to arrive and to die, his isolation becomes more and more complete in this dream-hazy parable by one of Mexico’s cutting-edge literary stars.
- Cuando ya no importe by Juan Carlos Onetti
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antho🌈 2013-10-15 21:32:02
结合你给出的20名单，的确有些不认识的Eloy Martinez、Fernando Vallejo、Juan Goytisolo、 Antonio Munoz Molina和Mario Bellatin，西班牙作家的确不差，只是个人觉得在拉美的巨大光环下显得有些黯然而已，不恰当的比方如在张爱玲巨大的旗袍下中国一众女作家始终焦虑。译介何止西班牙不够，就连拉美也有众多翻译遗珠，谈何葡萄牙、匈牙利、德语、等等众多文学佳作啊。
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antho🌈 2013-10-15 21:32:29
结合你给出的20名单，的确有些不认识的Eloy Martinez、Fernando Vallejo、Juan Goytisolo、 Antonio Munoz Molina和Mario Bellatin，西班牙作家的确不差，只是个人觉得在拉美的巨大光环下显得有些黯然而已，不恰当的比方如在张爱玲巨大的旗袍下中国一众女作家始终焦虑。译介何止西班牙不够，就连拉美也有众多翻译遗珠，谈何葡萄牙、匈牙利、德语、等等众多文学佳作啊。
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一张十万块 2013-10-17 10:18:49
你对于巴恩斯的评价和我如出一辙，我更偏好法国文学而对英国文学始终有着说不出的厌恶，巴恩斯恰恰是最对我胃口的当代英国作家，因他作品里有一种藏不住的法兰西气质
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一张十万块 2013-10-17 10:28:19
以06年的诺奖开始算起似乎有这样的规律：06年帕慕克（发现）、07年莱辛（功勋）、08年勒克莱齐奥（功勋）；09年赫塔米勒（发现）、10年略萨（功勋）、11年特朗斯特罗姆（功勋）；12年莫言（发现）、13年门罗（功勋）。依此规律14年更有可能颁给欧洲这一"文化中心"的知名度更高的作家
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一张十万块 2013-10-17 10:47:28
今年得主不算失望，但是私人来说更希望是同国的另一位女作家问鼎。在这里大胆猜测一下明年的得主 今年得主不算失望，但是私人来说更希望是同国的另一位女作家问鼎。在这里大胆猜测一下明年的得主。最有可能的当然是欧洲非英语国家/作家得奖，尤其是小语种更占优势，同时女作家的可能性大大降低，所以给出了以下三位： Peter Nadas 彼得·纳达斯（匈牙利) Antonio Lobo Antunes 安东尼奥•罗伯•安图内斯（葡萄牙） Cees Nooteboom 塞斯•诺特博姆（荷兰） 纳达斯常年陪跑，相对本国，在德语文坛其更受重视，经过桑塔格推荐在美国也有美誉，匈牙利语算小语种，且未有过诺奖得主，从近两年来看，诺奖有意在填补那些未被青睐的国家，同理，荷兰（语）的塞斯也多了一份筹码。离萨拉马戈获奖葡萄牙（语）也有十五年未有得主了，安图内斯地位及成就据葡语研究者称不低于萨拉马戈，其关注的战争、前葡国殖民地等题材都是诺奖评委所中意的。 除开欧洲，就是中亚是非地了，结合这几年世界局势，依诺贝尔奖的”人道主义“以及政治色彩，给出两位： Amos Oz 阿摩司·奥兹（以色列） Adonis 阿多尼斯（叙利亚/黎巴嫩） 阿多尼斯以及奥兹都是这几年的热门，诗人和小说家，显然后者更有可能，毕竟特朗斯特罗姆得奖不久，且诺奖青睐诗人的传统从近年来看慢慢转向小说家了。这两位依据我的感觉，只可能有一位能获奖，一旦一位获奖，另一位只怕今生无望了。 我记得莫言获奖时，瑞典文学院是加强了与美国的联系，而今年北美门罗传出的是与非洲的联系加强，若是慢一年的节奏，今年非洲依旧热门，所以给出三位： Nuruddin Farah 努鲁丁•法拉赫（索马里） Ngugi Wa Thiog'o 恩古吉•瓦•提安哥（肯尼亚） Ben Okri 本·奥瑞克（尼日利亚） 之所以排除杰巴尔，是考虑今年是女性，而不是怀起其重要性，之所以三位都是黑肤色的作家，因为非洲已有的四位得主中，只有索因卡为黑人，库切和戈迪默都是混血，所以我认为黑人作家更有可能，但也可能是我一厢情愿了。恩古吉算阿契贝同代人，虽不及前者，但是常年旅居美国，影响不小，况且阿契贝已作古，不能一失再失，虽然诺贝尔做得够多了。而法拉赫与奥克瑞都算是更年轻一辈的作家，但是在西方影响都很大，如果获奖的话感觉和帕慕克一样，来日方长。 历史上同一大洲连年获奖的情况几乎都出现在欧洲，但是有过欧洲的先例就无法排除北美不会发生，同一国家却几乎不可能，所以给出两位美国作家： Thomas Pynchon 托马斯·品钦（美） Philip Roth 菲利普·罗斯（美） 前者个人超级喜欢，也强烈希望，同时觉得给不给他都无所谓，具体要给他的原因请看之前在这帖子的发言，后者却是最有可能的美国作家。之所以没给出其他重量级美国作家，毕竟同一洲概率也不那么大，且针对美国文学的狭隘论毕竟是文学院给出的，自己打自己嘴巴也不容易。 最后给出Salman Rushdie 萨尔曼•拉什迪（英），虽说之前有类似的马尔克斯《百年孤独》格拉斯《铁皮鼓》珠玉在前（之所以这样说，读过《午夜之子》就会明白），却也丝毫掩不住拉什迪的光芒，觉得其争议性也是对伊斯兰原教旨主义的批评，至少本人不喜欢太过激进的宗教。作为后殖民/世界作家巨擘，撇开政治，算起来泰戈尔获奖几乎快一个世纪了，印度（裔）作家群近年的崛起，有印度血统的拉什迪也算佼佼者。 ... antho🌈以个人对诺奖评委口味的猜测，14年诺奖或许会回归欧洲，15年非洲获奖的概率更大。彼得纳达斯个人非常希望能够获奖，不过匈牙利并不是未产生过诺奖得主，02年的凯尔泰斯也是匈牙利作家。今年在赔率榜单上出现的挪威戏剧作家约恩·福瑟个人认为并不是昙花一现，在明年他也将是诺奖的强有力竞争者，挪威在1928年之后也再未获过诺奖，听说福瑟在欧洲戏剧界也是和彼得汉德克齐名的大作家，会不会在05年的品特之后再颁给戏剧作家也是明年诺奖的一大悬念。葡萄牙这种诞生佩索阿和萨拉马戈的国度，就算连颁十年诺奖给他们也不为过，只是不知安图内斯明年是否会入诸评委法眼。我个人是法兰西文学的拥趸，像米歇尔图尼埃和博纳富瓦这样的大作家诺奖若不颁给他们我实在觉得对于诺奖的文学水准是一种降低。以可能性来说，美国作家明年机会不大了，阿多尼斯在特朗斯特罗姆后获奖也几近无望，倒是奥兹获奖总觉得是件可能性很高的事。塞斯•诺特博姆的书在欧洲有点过于畅销，读库切对他的书评，他写的游记在欧洲兴起了一股去西班牙内地小镇旅游的浪潮，这种流行趋势对获诺奖绝不是好事，不知他能否像帕慕克一样得奖。
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一张十万块 2013-10-17 10:55:34
今年得主不算失望，但是私人来说更希望是同国的另一位女作家问鼎。在这里大胆猜测一下明年的得主 今年得主不算失望，但是私人来说更希望是同国的另一位女作家问鼎。在这里大胆猜测一下明年的得主。最有可能的当然是欧洲非英语国家/作家得奖，尤其是小语种更占优势，同时女作家的可能性大大降低，所以给出了以下三位： Peter Nadas 彼得·纳达斯（匈牙利) Antonio Lobo Antunes 安东尼奥•罗伯•安图内斯（葡萄牙） Cees Nooteboom 塞斯•诺特博姆（荷兰） 纳达斯常年陪跑，相对本国，在德语文坛其更受重视，经过桑塔格推荐在美国也有美誉，匈牙利语算小语种，且未有过诺奖得主，从近两年来看，诺奖有意在填补那些未被青睐的国家，同理，荷兰（语）的塞斯也多了一份筹码。离萨拉马戈获奖葡萄牙（语）也有十五年未有得主了，安图内斯地位及成就据葡语研究者称不低于萨拉马戈，其关注的战争、前葡国殖民地等题材都是诺奖评委所中意的。 除开欧洲，就是中亚是非地了，结合这几年世界局势，依诺贝尔奖的”人道主义“以及政治色彩，给出两位： Amos Oz 阿摩司·奥兹（以色列） Adonis 阿多尼斯（叙利亚/黎巴嫩） 阿多尼斯以及奥兹都是这几年的热门，诗人和小说家，显然后者更有可能，毕竟特朗斯特罗姆得奖不久，且诺奖青睐诗人的传统从近年来看慢慢转向小说家了。这两位依据我的感觉，只可能有一位能获奖，一旦一位获奖，另一位只怕今生无望了。 我记得莫言获奖时，瑞典文学院是加强了与美国的联系，而今年北美门罗传出的是与非洲的联系加强，若是慢一年的节奏，今年非洲依旧热门，所以给出三位： Nuruddin Farah 努鲁丁•法拉赫（索马里） Ngugi Wa Thiog'o 恩古吉•瓦•提安哥（肯尼亚） Ben Okri 本·奥瑞克（尼日利亚） 之所以排除杰巴尔，是考虑今年是女性，而不是怀起其重要性，之所以三位都是黑肤色的作家，因为非洲已有的四位得主中，只有索因卡为黑人，库切和戈迪默都是混血，所以我认为黑人作家更有可能，但也可能是我一厢情愿了。恩古吉算阿契贝同代人，虽不及前者，但是常年旅居美国，影响不小，况且阿契贝已作古，不能一失再失，虽然诺贝尔做得够多了。而法拉赫与奥克瑞都算是更年轻一辈的作家，但是在西方影响都很大，如果获奖的话感觉和帕慕克一样，来日方长。 历史上同一大洲连年获奖的情况几乎都出现在欧洲，但是有过欧洲的先例就无法排除北美不会发生，同一国家却几乎不可能，所以给出两位美国作家： Thomas Pynchon 托马斯·品钦（美） Philip Roth 菲利普·罗斯（美） 前者个人超级喜欢，也强烈希望，同时觉得给不给他都无所谓，具体要给他的原因请看之前在这帖子的发言，后者却是最有可能的美国作家。之所以没给出其他重量级美国作家，毕竟同一洲概率也不那么大，且针对美国文学的狭隘论毕竟是文学院给出的，自己打自己嘴巴也不容易。 最后给出Salman Rushdie 萨尔曼•拉什迪（英），虽说之前有类似的马尔克斯《百年孤独》格拉斯《铁皮鼓》珠玉在前（之所以这样说，读过《午夜之子》就会明白），却也丝毫掩不住拉什迪的光芒，觉得其争议性也是对伊斯兰原教旨主义的批评，至少本人不喜欢太过激进的宗教。作为后殖民/世界作家巨擘，撇开政治，算起来泰戈尔获奖几乎快一个世纪了，印度（裔）作家群近年的崛起，有印度血统的拉什迪也算佼佼者。 ... antho🌈在目前没有赔率信息佐证的情况下，我只能猜这些作家明年有机会：彼得纳达斯、约恩·福瑟、阿摩司·奥兹、伊斯梅尔.卡达莱、米歇尔·图尼埃、安图内斯。（或者颁给一个意大利、丹麦、瑞士、冰岛、希腊等这些多年未获或从未得过诺奖的欧洲国家的作家）
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一张十万块 2013-10-17 11:05:54
Top 20 Spanish-Language Novels Written Since 1982 This list is taken from the Colombian Top 20 Spanish-Language Novels Written Since 1982 This list is taken from the Colombian magazine Semana’s list of the best 100 Spanish-language novels of the last 25 years. The list was published in 2007. 1. Love in the Time of Cholera by Gabriel García Márquez “In their youth, Florentino Ariza and Fermina Daza fall passionately in love. When Fermina eventually chooses to marry a wealthy, well-born doctor, Florentino is devastated, but he is a romantic. As he rises in his business career he whiles away the years in 622 affairs–yet he reserves his heart for Fermina. Her husband dies at last, and Florentino purposefully attends the funeral. Fifty years, nine months, and four days after he first declared his love for Fermina, he will do so again. ” 2. The Feast of the Goat by Mario Vargas Llosa From the Publishers Weekly review: “This wasn’t an enemy he could defeat like the hundreds, the thousands he had confronted and conquered over the years, buying them, intimidating them, killing them.” So thinks Rafael Trujillo, “the Goat,” dictator of the Dominican Republic, on the morning of May 30, 1961 a day that will end in his assassination. The “enemy” is old age at 70, Trujillo, who has always prided himself on his grooming and discipline, is shaken by bouts of incontinence and impotence. Vargas Llosa divides his narrative between three different story lines. The first concerns Urania Cabral, the daughter of one of Trujillo’s closest associates, Agustín Cabral. She is 14 at the time of the Trujillo assassination and, as we gradually discover, was betrayed by her father to Trujillo. Since then, she has lived in the U.S. At 49, she impulsively returns on a visit and slowly reveals the root of her alienation.” 3. The Savage Detectives by Roberto Bolano In the novel that established his international reputation, Roberto Bolaño tells the story of two modern-day Quixotes—the last survivors of an underground literary movement, perhaps of literature itself—on a tragicomic quest through a darkening, entropic universe: our own. The Savage Detectives is an exuberant, raunchy, wildly inventive, and ambitious novel from one of the greatest Latin American authors of our age. 4. 2666 by Roberto Bolano Three academics on the trail of a reclusive German author; a New York reporter on his first Mexican assignment; a widowed philosopher; a police detective in love with an elusive older woman–these are among the searchers drawn to the border city of Santa Teresa, where over the course of a decade hundreds of women have disappeared. In the words of The Washington Post, “With 2666, Roberto Bolaño joins the ambitious overachievers of the twentieth-century novel, those like Proust, Musil, Joyce, Gaddis, Pynchon, Fuentes, and Vollmann, who push the novel far past its conventional size and scope to encompass an entire era, deploying encyclopedic knowledge and stylistic verve to offer a grand, if sometimes idiosyncratic, summation of their culture and the novelist’s place in it. Bolaño has joined the immortals.” 5. News from the Empire by Fernando Del Paso One of the acknowledged masterpieces of Mexican literature, Fernando del Paso’s News from the Empire is a powerful and encyclopedic novel of the tragic lives of Maximilian and his wife, Carlota, the short-lived Emperor and Empress of Mexico. Simultaneously intimate and panoramic, the narrative flows from Carlota’s fevered memories of her husband’s ill-fated empire to the multiple and conflicting accounts of a broad cast of characters who bore witness to the events that first placed the hapless couple on their puppet thrones, and then as swiftly removed them. Stretching from the troubled final years of Maximilian’s life to the early days of the twentieth century, News from the Empire depicts a world of both political and narrative turbulence, and is as much a history of the advent of modernity as a eulogy for the corrupt royal houses of Europe. 6. A Heart So White by Javier Marias A Heart So White is a breathtaking novel about family secrets, winner of the 1997 Dublin IMPAC Prize for the best novel published worldwide in English, and arguably Javier Marías’s masterpiece. Javier Marías’s A Heart So White chronicles with unnerving insistence the relentless power of the past. Juan knows little of the interior life of his father Ranz; but when Juan marries, he begins to consider the past anew, and begins to ponder what he doesn’t really want to know. Secrecy—its possible convenience, its price, and even its civility—hovers throughout the novel. A Heart So White becomes a sort of anti-detective story of human nature. 7. Bartleby & Co. by Enrique Vila-Matas In Bartleby & Co., an enormously enjoyable novel, Enrique Vila-Matas tackles the theme of silence in literature: the writers and non-writers who, like the scrivener Bartleby of the Herman Melville story, in answer to any question or demand, replies: “I would prefer not to.” Addressing such “artists of refusal” as Robert Walser, Robert Musil, Arthur Rimbaud, Marcel Duchamp, Herman Melville, and J. D. Salinger, Bartleby & Co. could be described as a meditation: a walking tour through the annals of literature. Written as a series of footnotes (a non-work itself), Bartleby embarks on such questions as why do we write, why do we exist? 8. Santa Evita by Tomas Eloy Martinez Nothing could be stranger than the true story of Eva Peron, who began her career as a B-movie actress, won the love of a dictator and the adoration of a nation, and, in death, achieved virtual sainthood status. Out of these facts, Eloy Martinez has crafted a work of fiction that is at once tragic, savagely funny, perversely erotic, and intellectually provocative. 9. Tomorrow in the Battle Think On Me by Javier Marias From the Kirkus review: “Another intriguing psychodrama of sex, guilt, and social satire from the prize-winning Spanish author whose fiction in English translation includes All Souls and A Heart So White (both 1996). First published in 1994, this novel (which has itself won major international literary awards) explores the engagingly dysfunctional mind and heart of Victor Frances, a successful screenwriter, and a bland usurper of things and people that don’t belong to him–not unlike Shakespeare’s Richard III (the source of Mar¡as’s exceedingly witty title). The novel begins with a bang, so to speak, when Victor’s mistress Marta De n dies of a heart attack in bed, precluding their usual lovemaking–and it then spins off into amusingly unpredictable directions as Victor observes Marta’s funeral from a safe distance.” 10. El Desbarrancadero (“The Edge of the Abyss”) by Fernando Vallejo From Publishers Weekly: “A Colombian-born writer based in Mexico City, Vallejo received considerable worldwide recognition when his last novel, La virgen de los sicarios (Our Lady of the Assasins was made into a film by the acclaimed Barbet Schroeder. Just as dark as La virgen, this semi-autobiographical novel is set in the author’s native city, Medell!n. The narrator (called Vallejo) returns home after a prolonged absence to attend to his most beloved brother, Dario, an AIDS patient whose health is slowly deteriorating owing to his alcohol and marijuana use. Vallejo indulges in digressions into past memories that they both share, which include endless adolescent partying and homosexual love affairs. La Muerte (Death), the character around whom the narrative ultimately revolves, appears throughout, touching different members of Vallejo’s family and finally becoming his worst enemy.” 11. Our Lady of the Assassins by Fernando Vallejo From Publishers Weekly: “This slim, cynical novel by a well-regarded Colombian writer is an unsparing exploration of Medell¡n, Colombia’s second largest city and the infamous stronghold and resting place of drug lord Pablo Escobar. The narrator is a “grammarian,” who has recently returned to his hometown after many years abroad and discovers it has become a living nightmare, where music blares constantly, funerals are less important than soccer matches and a wayward glance is likely to get you killed. In a virtually unbroken dramatic monologue, the narrator recounts a love affair he once had with Alexis, a teenage hitman who carries out revenge killings for rival drug gangs. Post Escobar, the hitmen are disorganized and undisciplined, and they wreak havoc on the city.” 12. The Witness by Juan José Saer Le Monde: “Saer’s novel combines elements of the haunting metaphysical ambiguity of Jorge Luis Borges’ poetry and Graham Greene’s sensual description of the dark corners of the physical world and the human soul. The evocative imagery and ideas revealed in The Witness are not easily forgotten’ Washington Post ‘Let me make myself clear: The Witness is a great book and the name of its author, Juan Jose Saer, must be added to the list of the best South American writers.” 13. Soldiers of Salamis by Javier Cercas In the final moments of the Spanish Civil War, a writer and founding member of Franco’s Fascist Party is about to be shot, and yet miraculously escapes into the forest. When his hiding place is discovered, he faces death for the second time that day-but is spared, this time by a lone Republican soldier. The writer becomes a national hero and a member of Franco’s first government, while the soldier is forgotten. Sixty years later, Cercas’s novel peels back the layers of truth and propaganda in order to discover who the real hero was. Winner of the Independent Prize in Foreign Fiction. 14. Distant Star by Roberto Bolano From Wikipedia: “The main character, observed by an unnamed narrator, in Roberto Bolaño’s Distant Star is Alberto Ruiz-Tagle, who exploits the 1973 coup to launch his own version of the New Chilean Poetry: a multi-media enterprise involving sky-writing, torture, photography, murder, and verse. The unnamed narrator first encounters him in a college poetry workshop (where Ruiz-Tagle only has eyes for the beautiful Garmendia twins, Veronica and Angelica: unfortunately for them).” 15. Landscapes After the Battle by Juan Goytisolo From Publishers Weekly: “This engaging, gritty satire by Goytisolo, an outstanding Spanish novelist who left during Franco’s regime, offers a skewed tour of the tough new Paris street life radiating outward from the neighborhood of the Sentier metro. In 78 rapid-fire vignettes, the hero as monster’ in trench coat and felt hat sets out from his studio on the Rue Poissonniere to indulge in his ‘maniacal, obsessive, almost canine nosing about.’” 16. The City of Marvels by Eduardo Mendoza From Publishers Weekly: “Barcelona, chief city of Catalonia (historically a hotbed of anarchist and separatist activity) plays the role of a magical, protean character in this sprightly novel, a bestseller in Spain. The action spans the years between Barcelona’s two economically disastrous World’s Fairs of 1888 and 1929. Young Onofre Bouvila ventures from his parents’ provincial farm to work in the city, where he begins his political involvement by distributing revolutionary pamphlets on the fairgrounds. Aided by the giant Efren, he becomes a con-man who sells hair oil, serves underworld boss Don Humbert, arranges for rivals to be bumped off, and marries the Don’s lovely daughter, Margarita.” 17. El jinete polaco by Antonio Munoz Molina 18. El Testigo by Juan Villoro From The Quarterly Conversation: “Time proceeds at two speeds for Julio Valdivieso. The past overflows his present at a contemplative speed, a speed that allows for extended metaphors, nuanced conjectures, literary allusions, and an associative style of narration that can, for instance, start us with the embarrassed smile of Nieves, his cousin and first love, and then effortlessly transition into (i) a gypsy squirting breast milk at his wife Paola in Rome, (ii) his outings to a porn cinema in Leuven, (iii) a stanza from Ramon Lopez Velarde, (iv) Amphitrion’s visit to Tiresias, (v) a meditation on the principle of uncomfortableness in pornographic films, (vi) a playful masochistic refrain of Nieves, and (vii) the awkward smile of Julio’s favorite porn actress as sperm lands on her eyelid. Meanwhile, in the present, everyone in Mexico is trying to enlist Julio to their frantic plotlines. Julio resists these advances, although they will become unavoidable midway through the novel, in part because they explore so many unavoidable aspects of Mexican life, including the omnipresence of the drug cartels and the agonies of Catholicism, as well as more historical aspects like a Christian uprising against the revolution and Mexico’s national poet. The scope of El Testigo is tremendous. It isn’t surprising that Alvaro Enrigue at Letras Libres has called it The Great Mexican Novel. ” 19. Beauty Salon by Mario Bellatin A strange plague appears in a large city. Rejected by family and friends, some of the sick have nowhere to finish out their days until a hair stylist decides to offer refuge. He ends up converting his beauty shop, which he’s filled with tanks of exotic fish, into a sort of medieval hospice. As his “guests” continue to arrive and to die, his isolation becomes more and more complete in this dream-hazy parable by one of Mexico’s cutting-edge literary stars. 20. Cuando ya no importe by Juan Carlos Onetti ... 雨王拧发条鱼这个榜单上入选了三本波拉尼奥的书，那时他的《护身符》还未出版，否则不知会居于怎样的排位。波拉尼奥简直就像当代的卡夫卡，他的书一本接一本被挖出来，不断重新激发人们对文学最狂热的幻想，那本《护身符》真的棒极了，我仿佛再度返回文学爆炸的时代
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antho🌈 2013-10-17 12:37:36
以个人对诺奖评委口味的猜测，14年诺奖或许会回归欧洲，15年非洲获奖的概率更大。彼得纳达斯个人 以个人对诺奖评委口味的猜测，14年诺奖或许会回归欧洲，15年非洲获奖的概率更大。彼得纳达斯个人非常希望能够获奖，不过匈牙利并不是未产生过诺奖得主，02年的凯尔泰斯也是匈牙利作家。今年在赔率榜单上出现的挪威戏剧作家约恩·福瑟个人认为并不是昙花一现，在明年他也将是诺奖的强有力竞争者，挪威在1928年之后也再未获过诺奖，听说福瑟在欧洲戏剧界也是和彼得汉德克齐名的大作家，会不会在05年的品特之后再颁给戏剧作家也是明年诺奖的一大悬念。葡萄牙这种诞生佩索阿和萨拉马戈的国度，就算连颁十年诺奖给他们也不为过，只是不知安图内斯明年是否会入诸评委法眼。我个人是法兰西文学的拥趸，像米歇尔图尼埃和博纳富瓦这样的大作家诺奖若不颁给他们我实在觉得对于诺奖的文学水准是一种降低。以可能性来说，美国作家明年机会不大了，阿多尼斯在特朗斯特罗姆后获奖也几近无望，倒是奥兹获奖总觉得是件可能性很高的事。塞斯•诺特博姆的书在欧洲有点过于畅销，读库切对他的书评，他写的游记在欧洲兴起了一股去西班牙内地小镇旅游的浪潮，这种流行趋势对获诺奖绝不是好事，不知他能否像帕慕克一样得奖。 ... 一张十万块对，凯尔泰斯，因为对奥斯维辛题材不感兴趣，没读过他所以一时大意忘了他也是匈牙利作家，抱歉，这么说纳达斯获奖还要往后拖几年应该。
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leon 2013-10-17 16:03:33
今年得主不算失望，但是私人来说更希望是同国的另一位女作家问鼎。在这里大胆猜测一下明年的得主 今年得主不算失望，但是私人来说更希望是同国的另一位女作家问鼎。在这里大胆猜测一下明年的得主。最有可能的当然是欧洲非英语国家/作家得奖，尤其是小语种更占优势，同时女作家的可能性大大降低，所以给出了以下三位： Peter Nadas 彼得·纳达斯（匈牙利) Antonio Lobo Antunes 安东尼奥•罗伯•安图内斯（葡萄牙） Cees Nooteboom 塞斯•诺特博姆（荷兰） 纳达斯常年陪跑，相对本国，在德语文坛其更受重视，经过桑塔格推荐在美国也有美誉，匈牙利语算小语种，且未有过诺奖得主，从近两年来看，诺奖有意在填补那些未被青睐的国家，同理，荷兰（语）的塞斯也多了一份筹码。离萨拉马戈获奖葡萄牙（语）也有十五年未有得主了，安图内斯地位及成就据葡语研究者称不低于萨拉马戈，其关注的战争、前葡国殖民地等题材都是诺奖评委所中意的。 除开欧洲，就是中亚是非地了，结合这几年世界局势，依诺贝尔奖的”人道主义“以及政治色彩，给出两位： Amos Oz 阿摩司·奥兹（以色列） Adonis 阿多尼斯（叙利亚/黎巴嫩） 阿多尼斯以及奥兹都是这几年的热门，诗人和小说家，显然后者更有可能，毕竟特朗斯特罗姆得奖不久，且诺奖青睐诗人的传统从近年来看慢慢转向小说家了。这两位依据我的感觉，只可能有一位能获奖，一旦一位获奖，另一位只怕今生无望了。 我记得莫言获奖时，瑞典文学院是加强了与美国的联系，而今年北美门罗传出的是与非洲的联系加强，若是慢一年的节奏，今年非洲依旧热门，所以给出三位： Nuruddin Farah 努鲁丁•法拉赫（索马里） Ngugi Wa Thiog'o 恩古吉•瓦•提安哥（肯尼亚） Ben Okri 本·奥瑞克（尼日利亚） 之所以排除杰巴尔，是考虑今年是女性，而不是怀起其重要性，之所以三位都是黑肤色的作家，因为非洲已有的四位得主中，只有索因卡为黑人，库切和戈迪默都是混血，所以我认为黑人作家更有可能，但也可能是我一厢情愿了。恩古吉算阿契贝同代人，虽不及前者，但是常年旅居美国，影响不小，况且阿契贝已作古，不能一失再失，虽然诺贝尔做得够多了。而法拉赫与奥克瑞都算是更年轻一辈的作家，但是在西方影响都很大，如果获奖的话感觉和帕慕克一样，来日方长。 历史上同一大洲连年获奖的情况几乎都出现在欧洲，但是有过欧洲的先例就无法排除北美不会发生，同一国家却几乎不可能，所以给出两位美国作家： Thomas Pynchon 托马斯·品钦（美） Philip Roth 菲利普·罗斯（美） 前者个人超级喜欢，也强烈希望，同时觉得给不给他都无所谓，具体要给他的原因请看之前在这帖子的发言，后者却是最有可能的美国作家。之所以没给出其他重量级美国作家，毕竟同一洲概率也不那么大，且针对美国文学的狭隘论毕竟是文学院给出的，自己打自己嘴巴也不容易。 最后给出Salman Rushdie 萨尔曼•拉什迪（英），虽说之前有类似的马尔克斯《百年孤独》格拉斯《铁皮鼓》珠玉在前（之所以这样说，读过《午夜之子》就会明白），却也丝毫掩不住拉什迪的光芒，觉得其争议性也是对伊斯兰原教旨主义的批评，至少本人不喜欢太过激进的宗教。作为后殖民/世界作家巨擘，撇开政治，算起来泰戈尔获奖几乎快一个世纪了，印度（裔）作家群近年的崛起，有印度血统的拉什迪也算佼佼者。 ... antho🌈明年赔率表说不定又有新的作家出现。 略萨得了奖，西班牙语作者机会降低。您认为小语种和男作者会受青睐，而连续几届得主是英语作者：奈保尔（2001）、库切（2003）、品特（2005）、莱辛（2007）、门罗（2013）。前四位可是隔一年就一位，只有莱辛和门罗之间有五位的间隔。如今门罗获奖，诺贝尔文学奖又是回到了以英语文学为主流的道路上。不出意外，明年会是非英语作家，后年则又将是英语作家。 您以拉什迪作结，地域落在南亚地区，想来距泰戈尔获奖正好百年。南亚地区通用语言也多是英语。要是明年再颁给英语作者，原因也是弥补前几年缺憾。获奖者要是非英语作者，可能就不在南亚地区。 北美目前有两位，南美两位，中美洲有两位（奈保尔、沃尔科特），非洲三位（库切住在大洋洲），亚洲有三位（高行健住在法国，剩下两位住在东亚），其余都在欧洲地区——瑞典，英国，德国，法国，奥地利，匈牙利，意大利，土耳其。 近年逝世的有爱尔兰诗人希尼，葡萄牙作家萨拉马戈，俄罗斯作者索尔仁尼琴，波兰诗人辛姆博尔斯卡。诺贝尔文学奖有地域平衡，非英语地区，则可能出现在伊比利亚半岛，高加索山脉两侧，所以东欧、葡萄牙作者的可能性很大。 考虑到亚洲土地面积不小，西亚（中东地区）非英语作者也有可能。 结合语言、地域与在世作者情况，明年得主可能出现在斯拉夫语、葡萄牙语、阿拉伯语、希伯来语及欧洲北海附近。今年挪威戏剧家尤恩.弗瑟崛起，和爱尔兰诗人希尼辞世不无关系。
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antho🌈 2013-10-17 18:17:23
明年赔率表说不定又有新的作家出现。 略萨得了奖，西班牙语作者机会降低。您认为小语种和男作者 明年赔率表说不定又有新的作家出现。 略萨得了奖，西班牙语作者机会降低。您认为小语种和男作者会受青睐，而连续几届得主是英语作者：奈保尔（2001）、库切（2003）、品特（2005）、莱辛（2007）、门罗（2013）。前四位可是隔一年就一位，只有莱辛和门罗之间有五位的间隔。如今门罗获奖，诺贝尔文学奖又是回到了以英语文学为主流的道路上。不出意外，明年会是非英语作家，后年则又将是英语作家。 您以拉什迪作结，地域落在南亚地区，想来距泰戈尔获奖正好百年。南亚地区通用语言也多是英语。要是明年再颁给英语作者，原因也是弥补前几年缺憾。获奖者要是非英语作者，可能就不在南亚地区。 北美目前有两位，南美两位，中美洲有两位（奈保尔、沃尔科特），非洲三位（库切住在大洋洲），亚洲有三位（高行健住在法国，剩下两位住在东亚），其余都在欧洲地区——瑞典，英国，德国，法国，奥地利，匈牙利，意大利，土耳其。 近年逝世的有爱尔兰诗人希尼，葡萄牙作家萨拉马戈，俄罗斯作者索尔仁尼琴，波兰诗人辛姆博尔斯卡。诺贝尔文学奖有地域平衡，非英语地区，则可能出现在伊比利亚半岛，高加索山脉两侧，所以东欧、葡萄牙作者的可能性很大。 考虑到亚洲土地面积不小，西亚（中东地区）非英语作者也有可能。 结合语言、地域与在世作者情况，明年得主可能出现在斯拉夫语、葡萄牙语、阿拉伯语、希伯来语及欧洲北海附近。今年挪威戏剧家尤恩.弗瑟崛起，和爱尔兰诗人希尼辞世不无关系。 ... leon今年的阿列克谢耶维奇不管是不是博彩公司炒作，斯拉夫语是多年未获奖了，弗瑟和她的大热也印证了你的推测，语种以及地域，我也是这样认为的，当然北欧我忽略了，而且只考虑了获奖的地域分布，而没有考虑仍活着的分散各大洲的诺奖得主。除开我的英语作家猜测外，最希望的是葡萄牙语和希伯来语作家，其实就是安图内斯和奥兹。
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