数据显示 "剩男"危机论还为时尚早

The number of 30-plus bachelors, or "leftover men", in China's rural areas is astonishing. Some demographers estimate there may be 30 million, even 50 million of them thanks to the widening sex ratio at birth. But such estimation, to some extent, overstates the reality of rural residents' marital status. The gender imbalance may indicate the number of unmarried men, not necessarily "leftover men", is higher than women. But since a husband can be five years older than his wife, and vice-versa, the age gap is not a major concern in marriage. The gender imbalance at birth started widening in 1995 and peaked about 10 years later. In other words, most of those born during this period are less than 20 years old－and hence not old enough for marriage－and will reach the "leftover men's threshold" after only about 10 years. Therefore, the nearly 20 million men in rural areas who remain unmarried despite crossing their 30s have little to do with the gender imbalance at birth. The problems they face in getting a wife, too, vary from region to region. One thing is certain, the causes behind the serious problem of "leftover men" are complicated and abnormal. About 30 percent of them couldn't get married at the socially accepted marriageable age because of physiological or psychological defects, with another 30 percent having failed because they kept waiting for their "dream partners". Only 10 percent or so of the "leftover men" failed to find a wife because of their "background"－which mostly happened before the mid-1980s for certain historical reasons. The highest percentage of "leftover men"－almost 60 percent－couldn't get married because they couldn't afford to pay the dowry for a bride. The gender imbalance at birth has played a limited role in the "leftover men" problem. They, however, could trigger an even greater crisis－a situation in which more men in their 30s or 40s remain unmarried in the next decade or so. 在中国农村地区，三十岁以上的单身男性（俗称“剩男”）的数量非常惊人。一些人口统计学家预测，由于男女比例失调日益严重，这一数字将会达到三千万，甚至五千万。但是这种对于农村地区人民的婚姻状况的推断在某种程度上有些言过其实。 男女比例失调也许可以预测未婚男子的数量（不一定都是“剩男”）比女性高。但是这没有考虑到年龄差距在婚姻中并不是主要影响因素，例如丈夫可能会比妻子年长五岁，反之亦然。 男女出生率失衡是在1995年开始扩大的，并在十年后达到顶峰。也就是说，这段时间出生的人现在还不满二十岁，尚未到达结婚年龄，而要等到十年后才能讨论是否为“剩男”。 因此，现在造成近二百万的农村大龄未婚男子出现的原因跟男女比例失衡关系不大。他们面临的找媳妇问题是因地而异的。 有一点可以确定的是，引发如此严重“剩男危机”的原因是复杂和不寻常的。他们当中，有30%的人没能在正常年龄结婚是因为存在生理或心理方面的缺陷，另外还有30%的人是在等待自己的梦中情人的出现。 只有大约10%的男性是由于八十年代中期的历史因素未能结婚的。而由于担负不起高额的嫁妆而不能结婚的“剩男”最多，占总数的60%。 男女出生比例失衡在“剩男”这一问题当中作用不是很大，但是，它却可以加重这一现象，从而引发更严重的危机。在接下的十几年甚至更长的时间里，将会出现越来越多的30岁到40岁的未婚男性。昆明韦博国际英语