苹果（AAPL）2012财年10-K报表
参考：
腾讯科技：苹果2012财年年报详解：研发与员工人数增长
APPLE 2.0 – Fortune.com: By the numbers: Apple’s fiscal 2012 annual report
Traditional valuation models get outlandish for AAPL. DCF, for example: AAPL’s 5yr avg annual EPS growth rate is 64%. Conservatively assume they will be able to average a third of that over the next 5 years before leveling off at 0% thereafter. With a discount rate of 5.36% (the true CAGR of the S&P 500 Index over the last 50 years, adj’d for inflation), you get a present value of $2005/share. Run those same assumptions through the Buffet-style valuation which compares the investment to 5% Treasury bond w/ a 50% certainty on EPS and you are still left with a present intrinsic value of $1080. Ben Graham’s” Intelligent Investor” bible for value investors says P/E = 8.5 +2G where G is the earnings growth rate. Again, assume AAPL’s EPS growth shrinks by 66% to 21.3% and Graham gives you a “fair” P/E of 51.6x, which is 382% higher than what the market is currently applying.
Is that growth feasible? Or does some made-up law of large numbers get in the way? We must ask What would AAPL look like in 10 years after such growth? Well, look at cell phones. IDC on 10/25 says Apple’s current share of smartphone global is 15.0%. With my assumed EPS growth, y10 EPS is at 115.69, an increase of 263%. 2.63*15.0%=40%. Apple would have to have around 40% of the current global smartphone market (remember that it, itself, is expected to grow) and experience similar EPS growth in AAPL’s other rev streams to make the above valuations feasible.
One company can’t occupy 40% of a market, can it? Wait, AAPL already does occupy somewhere around 70% of the tablet space. Also, keep in mind that iPhones make up just 6.1% of the global cell phone market. Law of large numbers, indeed.
AAPL is way, way undervalued. But the market can stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent.
10-K 报表显示：
雇员 Employees: 72,800 full-time equivalent, up from 60,400 in 2011
销售人员 Retail employees: 42,400 full-time equivalent, up from 36,000
建筑空间 Building space: 17.3 million square feet, up from 13.2 million
物业 Land owned: 1,770 acres, up from 584
零售店 Retail stores: 390, up from 357
每股收益 Revenue per store: $51.5 million, up from $43.3 million
股价范围 Price range of common stock: $354.24 to $705.07
分红 Quarterly dividends: $2.65 per share, up from $0.00
股价表现 Stock performance: Up 335% since Sept. 30, 2007, compared with 5% for S&P 500
经销售额 Net sales: $156.5 billion, up from $108.2 billion
EPS Earnings per share: $44.15, up from $27.68
毛利 Gross margin: 43.9%, up from 40.5%
现金&有价证券 Cash and marketable securities: $121.25 billion, up from $81.57 billion
长期债务 Long term debt: $0.00
研发 Research and development: $3.38 billion, up from $2.43 billion
CapEx 资本支出 Capital expenditures: $10.3 billion, up from $8.3 billion
预计2013财年资本支出 Projected CapEx for 2013: $10 billion — $850 million for retail stores, $9.15 billion for product tooling and manufacturing process equipment, and corporate facilities and infrastructure, including information systems hardware, software and enhancements
原文链接：http://www.dragon-fruit.org/archives/443
腾讯科技：苹果2012财年年报详解：研发与员工人数增长
APPLE 2.0 – Fortune.com: By the numbers: Apple’s fiscal 2012 annual report
Traditional valuation models get outlandish for AAPL. DCF, for example: AAPL’s 5yr avg annual EPS growth rate is 64%. Conservatively assume they will be able to average a third of that over the next 5 years before leveling off at 0% thereafter. With a discount rate of 5.36% (the true CAGR of the S&P 500 Index over the last 50 years, adj’d for inflation), you get a present value of $2005/share. Run those same assumptions through the Buffet-style valuation which compares the investment to 5% Treasury bond w/ a 50% certainty on EPS and you are still left with a present intrinsic value of $1080. Ben Graham’s” Intelligent Investor” bible for value investors says P/E = 8.5 +2G where G is the earnings growth rate. Again, assume AAPL’s EPS growth shrinks by 66% to 21.3% and Graham gives you a “fair” P/E of 51.6x, which is 382% higher than what the market is currently applying.
Is that growth feasible? Or does some made-up law of large numbers get in the way? We must ask What would AAPL look like in 10 years after such growth? Well, look at cell phones. IDC on 10/25 says Apple’s current share of smartphone global is 15.0%. With my assumed EPS growth, y10 EPS is at 115.69, an increase of 263%. 2.63*15.0%=40%. Apple would have to have around 40% of the current global smartphone market (remember that it, itself, is expected to grow) and experience similar EPS growth in AAPL’s other rev streams to make the above valuations feasible.
One company can’t occupy 40% of a market, can it? Wait, AAPL already does occupy somewhere around 70% of the tablet space. Also, keep in mind that iPhones make up just 6.1% of the global cell phone market. Law of large numbers, indeed.
AAPL is way, way undervalued. But the market can stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent.
10-K 报表显示：
雇员 Employees: 72,800 full-time equivalent, up from 60,400 in 2011
销售人员 Retail employees: 42,400 full-time equivalent, up from 36,000
建筑空间 Building space: 17.3 million square feet, up from 13.2 million
物业 Land owned: 1,770 acres, up from 584
零售店 Retail stores: 390, up from 357
每股收益 Revenue per store: $51.5 million, up from $43.3 million
股价范围 Price range of common stock: $354.24 to $705.07
分红 Quarterly dividends: $2.65 per share, up from $0.00
股价表现 Stock performance: Up 335% since Sept. 30, 2007, compared with 5% for S&P 500
经销售额 Net sales: $156.5 billion, up from $108.2 billion
EPS Earnings per share: $44.15, up from $27.68
毛利 Gross margin: 43.9%, up from 40.5%
现金&有价证券 Cash and marketable securities: $121.25 billion, up from $81.57 billion
长期债务 Long term debt: $0.00
研发 Research and development: $3.38 billion, up from $2.43 billion
CapEx 资本支出 Capital expenditures: $10.3 billion, up from $8.3 billion
预计2013财年资本支出 Projected CapEx for 2013: $10 billion — $850 million for retail stores, $9.15 billion for product tooling and manufacturing process equipment, and corporate facilities and infrastructure, including information systems hardware, software and enhancements
原文链接：http://www.dragon-fruit.org/archives/443
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