Indonesia’s election 印度尼西亚的选举
Indonesia’s election 印度ni西亚的选ju
Knife’s edge 刀刃
Indonesia’s presidential race tightens as election day approaches 印度ni西亚的总tong选ju随着选ju日的到来越发紧张起来
http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21606330-indonesias-presidential-race-tightens-election-day-approaches-knifes-edge
IN LATE June the two candidates in Indonesia’s presidential race both held rallies in Jakarta, the capital. Supporters of Joko Widodo, known to all as Jokowi (pictured right), walked and cycled through the central business district. From a stage set up at a roundabout, Jokowi thanked his supporters in a brief, rather flat speech.
在6月尾，印度ni西亚参加总tong竞选的两个候选人都在首都雅加达举行集会。卓可雅多多，大家都称他为卓可雅（上图右者），他的支持者走上街头并在商业中心区循环you行。在一个环状交叉路口的临时搭建舞台上，卓可雅简要地感谢了他的支持者，并没有对此作长篇大论。
Prabowo Subianto (pictured left) held his rally at Bung Karno stadium, which seats more than 80,000. Trumpeters and drummers heralded his arrival in a white convertible. He was flanked by his running mate, Hatta Rajasa, and by leaders of the parties in his coalition—all wearing identical white shirts. The rally did not quite reach the theatrical heights of an event back in March, where he arrived by helicopter and pranced astride a bay charger. But he delivered a fiery speech, and was carried off on the shoulders of cheering supporters.
普拉博沃.苏比安托（上图左边）在苏卡诺举行了自己的集会，参与者超过了8万。小号手和鼓手在一辆敞篷车上通报着他的到来。他的竞选伙伴哈达.拉加萨和他的联盟党的主席----他们都穿着一样的白衬衫，在他两侧簇拥着他走了过来。这次的集会没有像3月的集会那样弄到戏剧化的高度，那次他是乘着直升机来的，下机后跨着电动马达飞奔过来。不过这一次他发表了一篇热烈的演讲，并获得了支持者们的欢呼。
Vulgar showmanship, no doubt. But Mr Prabowo has run a devastating campaign against Jokowi, clawing his way back in opinion polls from a 39-point deficit. The election, which will be held on July 9th, is too close to call. On June 30th Jokowi was polling at 46% of the votes and Mr Prabowo at 42.6%.
毫无疑问这是粗俗的吸引观众的窍门。但是普拉博沃还策划了一场破坏性的反对卓可雅的活动，把他的民意调查支持度从39%的得分拉下去。这场选ju，会在7月9日举行，实在是势均力敌。在6月30日，卓可雅的民调得分是46%的选票而普拉博沃是42.6%。
Jokowi is an unusual politician. A mediocre orator, his appeal rests on his humble roots as a furniture seller, his can-do pragmatism and a reputation unsullied by corruption. He has no great fortune, and, unlike many of those born into political influence, was not educated abroad.
卓可雅是一个不同寻常的政治家。他本是一个普通的演说家，他的吸引力来源于他普通百姓作为家具业务员的出身，他的吃苦耐劳的务实作风和清白的没被贪污玷污的声誉。他没有巨额的财富，同时不像其他很多人那样出身于政治世家，也没有在国外受过教育。
With a cupboard free of skeletons, he built a name for effective governance, first as mayor of the mid-sized Javanese city of Solo and then as governor of Jakarta. He was good at the unsexy problems of dredging canals, collecting rubbish and providing health care—life-improving things that ordinary people notice. He made a point of walking through neighbourhoods and listening to constituents—a rarity in Indonesia. He is often compared to Barack Obama for the way he energised voters—even before he officially launched his campaign.
他干净得像个碗柜，没有什么丑闻，从一开始做中等规模的梭罗河的爪哇人城市的市长，到后来做了雅加达的长官，他建立起有效实在的管理的名声。他很擅长处理那些看起来无关紧要的问题，如疏浚运河，收集垃圾和提供健康医疗服务---- 这些关系到提升生活水平的普通民众关心的事情。他重视在街道上走访，并聆听不同的声音---- 他是一个不可多得的印度ni西亚领导人。他经常给选民以正能量----即使是他还没正式参与竞选时也是这样，他这个方式经常被拿来跟ou巴马相比较。
The difference is that Mr Obama was a near-perfect campaigner. Jokowi has been disappointing. He never grasped that running for president is a different game from running for smaller offices. Promises of good governance are not enough. Someone close to his team says two failings stand out. First, Jokowi has lacked a ruthlessly professional campaign. His handlers have not swatted down the smears that could never be traced back to Mr Prabowo’s people: that Jokowi was secretly a Chinese, a Christian or a Communist, or that he was the puppet of Megawati Sukarnoputri, a former president and the head of the party on whose ticket Jokowi is running. Second, in a country as large, diverse and complex as Indonesia, Jokowi needed to tell a broader story: here is what is wrong with Indonesia, and here is how I intend to fix it. Jokowi never developed these storytelling skills.
不同的是ou巴马是个近乎完美的参选者。而卓可雅曾经是令人失望的。他一直没搞明白总tong竞选跟竞选地方官员是不同的游戏。承诺善政廉政是不够的。一些很接近他的竞选队伍的人指出他有两个明显的不足。第一，卓可雅缺乏残忍的专业的竞选经验。他的经理人没能为他拍掉污点以让普拉博沃的人永远也追溯不到这些：卓可雅可能暗地里是个中国人，一个基督教徒，或一个共产党员，或者他只是前任总tong苏加诺普翠的傀儡，而事实上，卓可雅现在也是在争取着以苏加诺普翠为首的正常的选票。第二，在一个像印度ni西亚这么大，这么分化而复杂的国家，卓可雅需要讲一个更加广泛的故事：哪些哪些是印度ni西亚做得不对的地方，他准备怎么去修正它。卓可雅根本没有掌握这些讲故事的技巧。
Yet the campaign is not merely about one candidate’s missed chances. It is also about how Mr Prabowo seized the initiative. While Jokowi started campaigning only in March, Mr Prabowo has in effect been doing so for a decade, having sought the presidency twice before. Both his ex-wife, Siti Hediati Hariyadi, daughter of the late dictator, Suharto, and his fabulously wealthy brother, Hashim Djojohadikusumo, have campaigned on his behalf. He also has the backing of two television tycoons—Aburizal Bakrie, who heads the Golkar party, and Hary Tanoesoedibjo. Between them they have five of Indonesia’s 12 terrestrial television networks.
然而竞选不仅仅是其中一个候选人失去机会。它也是普拉博沃如何掌握主动权的过程。当卓可雅在今年3月开始竞选时，普拉博沃实际上已经准备了有十年了，他之前已经两次寻求总tong职位。他的前妻，故独裁者苏哈托的女儿，西提.何迪爱提.哈里亚迪，和他那令人难以置信地有钱的兄弟约约哈迪库苏莫，他们两人都代表他参加过竞选。他还有两大电视巨头的支持----专业集团党的首领阿布里扎尔.巴克利和哈利.塔努苏迪卜佐。他们拥有印度ni西亚的12个地面电视网络中的5个。
One’s to lose, the other’s to win 谁输了，另一个就会赢
Douglas Ramage of Bower Group Asia, a business consultancy, credits Mr Prabowo with giving Indonesians “a message they want to hear: an assertive, muscular Indonesia that has lost control of its natural resources and had too much of its wealth taken by foreigners.” Mr Prabowo’s nationalist fulminations sound rather paranoid, and it is not clear that he believes them. But they seem to be working.
商业咨询公司鲍尔集团亚太公司的道格拉斯.拉马吉相信普拉博沃会给印度ni西亚人民“一个他们想听到的信息：一个自信的，肌肉发达的印度ni西亚，但它已经对它的自然资源失去了控制，并且外国人已经拿走了它的非常多的财富。”普拉博沃的民族主义抨击听起来很偏狂，也不清楚他自己是否也相信这些。但这些话看起来是有效果的。
There is a darker side however. Mr Prabowo has long been dogged by talk of human-rights abuses: for instance, that in the late 1990s as an army general he ordered the abduction and torture of pro-democracy activists and helped stir up anti-Chinese riots in which many died. When Jokowi’s running-mate, Jusuf Kalla, raised the allegations during a debate, Mr Prabowo deflected them by saying he was simply a former soldier who did his duty. Military bluffness is part of his political persona.
然而还有更加灰暗的一面。普拉博沃一直以来被谈论滥用人民权利这些言论所困扰：比如说，在1990年代末期，他作为军队的一个上将，命令对支持民主的积极分子采取威逼利诱和严刑拷打的手段，他还协助煽动反华暴动，导致很多人在暴动中死亡。当卓可雅的竞选拍档尤素夫. 卡拉在一场辩论中指出了这些指控，普拉博沃打了个擦边球说他之前只是一个尽自己责任的军人。军人式的率真是他政治形象的一部份。
Mr Prabowo has also expressed reservations about democracy. He has repeatedly expressed a desire for Indonesia to return to its original constitution, which placed great power in the hands of the president and provided for the holder of that office to be elected by the legislature rather than by popular vote. On June 28th he called direct elections “not appropriate for us”, and said that “much of our current political and economic systems go against our nation’s fundamental philosophy, laws and traditions…They do not suit our culture.”
普拉博沃同时也表达了对民主会有所保留。他已经反复表达这样的一个诉求，印度ni西亚应该回归到原来的宪法，这样总tong手里可以拥有很大的权力，并且是由立法机关而不是普通大众选ju出政府部门的当权者。在6月28日，他呼吁称，直接选ju“不适合我们”，并且表示“我们现在很多的政治和经济系统跟我们国家基本的理念，法律和传统等是对立的。那些东西不适合我们的文化。”
Though Mr Prabowo later backtracked, many worry that he would see victory as a mandate to roll back direct elections. He could do considerable political damage just by trying. Marcus Mietzner, a specialist in Indonesian politics at Australian National University, believes that Mr Prabowo’s anti-democratic statements have turned Jokowi, the apparent agent of change, into “the candidate of the status quo. Under his presidency, democracy, with all of its flaws and deficiencies, would continue.”
虽然普拉博沃后来改变主意了，很多人还是担忧他会通过授权以撤消直接选ju从而取得胜利。他仅仅通过尝试就会造成相当大的政治损害。澳大利亚国立大学的印尼政治研究专家马库斯.米茨纳，他相信普拉博沃的反民主言论已经把卓可雅变为“代表现状的候选人”，这是很明显的变化。如果他担任总tong，那么民主，和现有所有的问题和缺陷，都会继续
As for their economic policies, both candidates have espoused protectionism. Jokowi’s appears milder. Foreign investors certainly prefer him: Deutsche Bank reports that if Mr Prabowo wins, 56% of investors surveyed would sell their Indonesian assets and just 13% would buy, while a Jokowi win would cause 74% to buy and just 6% to sell.
至于他们的经济政策，两个候选人都支持贸易保护制度。卓可雅的方案显得更为温和。国外的投资者肯定也更加喜欢他：德意志银行的报告说如果普拉博沃当选，56%的投资者调查显示将会抛售他们的印尼资产，并且只有13%的人会选择购买，而如果卓可雅当选，74%的人会购买而只有6%的人会卖掉。
In truth their platforms are not radically different. Both want more roads and power; both want to keep in place a ban on exports of unprocessed mineral ore; and both say they worry about rising inequality and environmental degradation. Both, too, will have to manage fractious parliamentary coalitions. The two differ markedly, however, in both their personalities and their pasts. On July 9th Indonesians will decide how much that matters.
事实上，他们所带来的平台是并不是完全不同的。他们都想要建更多的道路和动力系统；都想保持对未经加工的原矿石出口的限制；都说他们担心不断上升的贫富差距和环境恶化问题。同时，他们都要对付难搞的议会联盟。然而，他们俩也有很明显的差别，就是他们的个性与过去。7月9日印度ni西亚人将会决定出这些会有多重要。
Knife’s edge 刀刃
Indonesia’s presidential race tightens as election day approaches 印度ni西亚的总tong选ju随着选ju日的到来越发紧张起来
http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21606330-indonesias-presidential-race-tightens-election-day-approaches-knifes-edge
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IN LATE June the two candidates in Indonesia’s presidential race both held rallies in Jakarta, the capital. Supporters of Joko Widodo, known to all as Jokowi (pictured right), walked and cycled through the central business district. From a stage set up at a roundabout, Jokowi thanked his supporters in a brief, rather flat speech.
在6月尾，印度ni西亚参加总tong竞选的两个候选人都在首都雅加达举行集会。卓可雅多多，大家都称他为卓可雅（上图右者），他的支持者走上街头并在商业中心区循环you行。在一个环状交叉路口的临时搭建舞台上，卓可雅简要地感谢了他的支持者，并没有对此作长篇大论。
Prabowo Subianto (pictured left) held his rally at Bung Karno stadium, which seats more than 80,000. Trumpeters and drummers heralded his arrival in a white convertible. He was flanked by his running mate, Hatta Rajasa, and by leaders of the parties in his coalition—all wearing identical white shirts. The rally did not quite reach the theatrical heights of an event back in March, where he arrived by helicopter and pranced astride a bay charger. But he delivered a fiery speech, and was carried off on the shoulders of cheering supporters.
普拉博沃.苏比安托（上图左边）在苏卡诺举行了自己的集会，参与者超过了8万。小号手和鼓手在一辆敞篷车上通报着他的到来。他的竞选伙伴哈达.拉加萨和他的联盟党的主席----他们都穿着一样的白衬衫，在他两侧簇拥着他走了过来。这次的集会没有像3月的集会那样弄到戏剧化的高度，那次他是乘着直升机来的，下机后跨着电动马达飞奔过来。不过这一次他发表了一篇热烈的演讲，并获得了支持者们的欢呼。
Vulgar showmanship, no doubt. But Mr Prabowo has run a devastating campaign against Jokowi, clawing his way back in opinion polls from a 39-point deficit. The election, which will be held on July 9th, is too close to call. On June 30th Jokowi was polling at 46% of the votes and Mr Prabowo at 42.6%.
毫无疑问这是粗俗的吸引观众的窍门。但是普拉博沃还策划了一场破坏性的反对卓可雅的活动，把他的民意调查支持度从39%的得分拉下去。这场选ju，会在7月9日举行，实在是势均力敌。在6月30日，卓可雅的民调得分是46%的选票而普拉博沃是42.6%。
Jokowi is an unusual politician. A mediocre orator, his appeal rests on his humble roots as a furniture seller, his can-do pragmatism and a reputation unsullied by corruption. He has no great fortune, and, unlike many of those born into political influence, was not educated abroad.
卓可雅是一个不同寻常的政治家。他本是一个普通的演说家，他的吸引力来源于他普通百姓作为家具业务员的出身，他的吃苦耐劳的务实作风和清白的没被贪污玷污的声誉。他没有巨额的财富，同时不像其他很多人那样出身于政治世家，也没有在国外受过教育。
With a cupboard free of skeletons, he built a name for effective governance, first as mayor of the mid-sized Javanese city of Solo and then as governor of Jakarta. He was good at the unsexy problems of dredging canals, collecting rubbish and providing health care—life-improving things that ordinary people notice. He made a point of walking through neighbourhoods and listening to constituents—a rarity in Indonesia. He is often compared to Barack Obama for the way he energised voters—even before he officially launched his campaign.
他干净得像个碗柜，没有什么丑闻，从一开始做中等规模的梭罗河的爪哇人城市的市长，到后来做了雅加达的长官，他建立起有效实在的管理的名声。他很擅长处理那些看起来无关紧要的问题，如疏浚运河，收集垃圾和提供健康医疗服务---- 这些关系到提升生活水平的普通民众关心的事情。他重视在街道上走访，并聆听不同的声音---- 他是一个不可多得的印度ni西亚领导人。他经常给选民以正能量----即使是他还没正式参与竞选时也是这样，他这个方式经常被拿来跟ou巴马相比较。
The difference is that Mr Obama was a near-perfect campaigner. Jokowi has been disappointing. He never grasped that running for president is a different game from running for smaller offices. Promises of good governance are not enough. Someone close to his team says two failings stand out. First, Jokowi has lacked a ruthlessly professional campaign. His handlers have not swatted down the smears that could never be traced back to Mr Prabowo’s people: that Jokowi was secretly a Chinese, a Christian or a Communist, or that he was the puppet of Megawati Sukarnoputri, a former president and the head of the party on whose ticket Jokowi is running. Second, in a country as large, diverse and complex as Indonesia, Jokowi needed to tell a broader story: here is what is wrong with Indonesia, and here is how I intend to fix it. Jokowi never developed these storytelling skills.
不同的是ou巴马是个近乎完美的参选者。而卓可雅曾经是令人失望的。他一直没搞明白总tong竞选跟竞选地方官员是不同的游戏。承诺善政廉政是不够的。一些很接近他的竞选队伍的人指出他有两个明显的不足。第一，卓可雅缺乏残忍的专业的竞选经验。他的经理人没能为他拍掉污点以让普拉博沃的人永远也追溯不到这些：卓可雅可能暗地里是个中国人，一个基督教徒，或一个共产党员，或者他只是前任总tong苏加诺普翠的傀儡，而事实上，卓可雅现在也是在争取着以苏加诺普翠为首的正常的选票。第二，在一个像印度ni西亚这么大，这么分化而复杂的国家，卓可雅需要讲一个更加广泛的故事：哪些哪些是印度ni西亚做得不对的地方，他准备怎么去修正它。卓可雅根本没有掌握这些讲故事的技巧。
Yet the campaign is not merely about one candidate’s missed chances. It is also about how Mr Prabowo seized the initiative. While Jokowi started campaigning only in March, Mr Prabowo has in effect been doing so for a decade, having sought the presidency twice before. Both his ex-wife, Siti Hediati Hariyadi, daughter of the late dictator, Suharto, and his fabulously wealthy brother, Hashim Djojohadikusumo, have campaigned on his behalf. He also has the backing of two television tycoons—Aburizal Bakrie, who heads the Golkar party, and Hary Tanoesoedibjo. Between them they have five of Indonesia’s 12 terrestrial television networks.
然而竞选不仅仅是其中一个候选人失去机会。它也是普拉博沃如何掌握主动权的过程。当卓可雅在今年3月开始竞选时，普拉博沃实际上已经准备了有十年了，他之前已经两次寻求总tong职位。他的前妻，故独裁者苏哈托的女儿，西提.何迪爱提.哈里亚迪，和他那令人难以置信地有钱的兄弟约约哈迪库苏莫，他们两人都代表他参加过竞选。他还有两大电视巨头的支持----专业集团党的首领阿布里扎尔.巴克利和哈利.塔努苏迪卜佐。他们拥有印度ni西亚的12个地面电视网络中的5个。
One’s to lose, the other’s to win 谁输了，另一个就会赢
Douglas Ramage of Bower Group Asia, a business consultancy, credits Mr Prabowo with giving Indonesians “a message they want to hear: an assertive, muscular Indonesia that has lost control of its natural resources and had too much of its wealth taken by foreigners.” Mr Prabowo’s nationalist fulminations sound rather paranoid, and it is not clear that he believes them. But they seem to be working.
商业咨询公司鲍尔集团亚太公司的道格拉斯.拉马吉相信普拉博沃会给印度ni西亚人民“一个他们想听到的信息：一个自信的，肌肉发达的印度ni西亚，但它已经对它的自然资源失去了控制，并且外国人已经拿走了它的非常多的财富。”普拉博沃的民族主义抨击听起来很偏狂，也不清楚他自己是否也相信这些。但这些话看起来是有效果的。
There is a darker side however. Mr Prabowo has long been dogged by talk of human-rights abuses: for instance, that in the late 1990s as an army general he ordered the abduction and torture of pro-democracy activists and helped stir up anti-Chinese riots in which many died. When Jokowi’s running-mate, Jusuf Kalla, raised the allegations during a debate, Mr Prabowo deflected them by saying he was simply a former soldier who did his duty. Military bluffness is part of his political persona.
然而还有更加灰暗的一面。普拉博沃一直以来被谈论滥用人民权利这些言论所困扰：比如说，在1990年代末期，他作为军队的一个上将，命令对支持民主的积极分子采取威逼利诱和严刑拷打的手段，他还协助煽动反华暴动，导致很多人在暴动中死亡。当卓可雅的竞选拍档尤素夫. 卡拉在一场辩论中指出了这些指控，普拉博沃打了个擦边球说他之前只是一个尽自己责任的军人。军人式的率真是他政治形象的一部份。
Mr Prabowo has also expressed reservations about democracy. He has repeatedly expressed a desire for Indonesia to return to its original constitution, which placed great power in the hands of the president and provided for the holder of that office to be elected by the legislature rather than by popular vote. On June 28th he called direct elections “not appropriate for us”, and said that “much of our current political and economic systems go against our nation’s fundamental philosophy, laws and traditions…They do not suit our culture.”
普拉博沃同时也表达了对民主会有所保留。他已经反复表达这样的一个诉求，印度ni西亚应该回归到原来的宪法，这样总tong手里可以拥有很大的权力，并且是由立法机关而不是普通大众选ju出政府部门的当权者。在6月28日，他呼吁称，直接选ju“不适合我们”，并且表示“我们现在很多的政治和经济系统跟我们国家基本的理念，法律和传统等是对立的。那些东西不适合我们的文化。”
Though Mr Prabowo later backtracked, many worry that he would see victory as a mandate to roll back direct elections. He could do considerable political damage just by trying. Marcus Mietzner, a specialist in Indonesian politics at Australian National University, believes that Mr Prabowo’s anti-democratic statements have turned Jokowi, the apparent agent of change, into “the candidate of the status quo. Under his presidency, democracy, with all of its flaws and deficiencies, would continue.”
虽然普拉博沃后来改变主意了，很多人还是担忧他会通过授权以撤消直接选ju从而取得胜利。他仅仅通过尝试就会造成相当大的政治损害。澳大利亚国立大学的印尼政治研究专家马库斯.米茨纳，他相信普拉博沃的反民主言论已经把卓可雅变为“代表现状的候选人”，这是很明显的变化。如果他担任总tong，那么民主，和现有所有的问题和缺陷，都会继续
As for their economic policies, both candidates have espoused protectionism. Jokowi’s appears milder. Foreign investors certainly prefer him: Deutsche Bank reports that if Mr Prabowo wins, 56% of investors surveyed would sell their Indonesian assets and just 13% would buy, while a Jokowi win would cause 74% to buy and just 6% to sell.
至于他们的经济政策，两个候选人都支持贸易保护制度。卓可雅的方案显得更为温和。国外的投资者肯定也更加喜欢他：德意志银行的报告说如果普拉博沃当选，56%的投资者调查显示将会抛售他们的印尼资产，并且只有13%的人会选择购买，而如果卓可雅当选，74%的人会购买而只有6%的人会卖掉。
In truth their platforms are not radically different. Both want more roads and power; both want to keep in place a ban on exports of unprocessed mineral ore; and both say they worry about rising inequality and environmental degradation. Both, too, will have to manage fractious parliamentary coalitions. The two differ markedly, however, in both their personalities and their pasts. On July 9th Indonesians will decide how much that matters.
事实上，他们所带来的平台是并不是完全不同的。他们都想要建更多的道路和动力系统；都想保持对未经加工的原矿石出口的限制；都说他们担心不断上升的贫富差距和环境恶化问题。同时，他们都要对付难搞的议会联盟。然而，他们俩也有很明显的差别，就是他们的个性与过去。7月9日印度ni西亚人将会决定出这些会有多重要。
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