TE 20180616 Britain and the EU: Softer is better精读
A hard Brexit seems ever less likely. Good 英国“硬脱欧”看上去更不可能了。很好
之前写的封面文章已经翻译了大半，一直过不了T T，哭死。只能重新选一篇文章了
Softer is better 越软越好
*英国脱欧分为硬脱欧和软脱欧，已经是国际新闻通用词语了，所以就没有翻译成“温和”
可以在以下网站先看下梅姨演讲的全文，了解背景：
WHEN Britons voted to leave the European Union two years ago, they had no chance to say what sort of Brexit they wanted. But Theresa May, who became prime minister in the aftermath of the referendum, quickly decided that they wanted the most drastic break possible. Without consulting her cabinet, let alone Parliament, she announced “red lines” for her negotiation with Brussels that put Britain on course for the fullest of separations.
两年前，当英国人投票决定要脱离欧盟时，他们并没有机会说出他们想要什么样的“英国脱欧”。但在这场全民公投结束后成为首相的特蕾莎·梅，很快决定了他们想要有可能的最激烈的分手。在没有征求内阁，更没有征求议会意见的情况下，她宣布了与欧盟谈判的“红线”，英国将以此为准来实现完全脱离。
Briton: a person from Britain
aftermath: （不快事件）结束后的一个时期；（不快事件的）后果
drastic: （尤指行动）严厉的，猛烈的，激烈的
on course: 在规定的过程中;
Brussels：欧盟总部所在地，这里是以小代大的手法表示欧盟
This “hard” Brexit—in which Britain would free itself from the clutches of European judges, trade policy and migration rules, at significant cost to its economy and security—has long looked inevitable. Parliament’s resistance to Mrs May’s extreme plan has been timid and the Labour opposition feeble. Yet this week the tide turned. Rebel Tory MPs look likely to wrest control of Brexit’s endgame from the government (see Britain section). Meanwhile, the penny dropped among Brexiteers that the Irish border presents a near-insurmountable roadblock to a hard exit. With less than six months of negotiating time left, it is becoming clear that Brexit will be softer than Mrs May set out. That is good news for Europe and for Britain.
硬脱欧，指的是英国将摆脱欧洲法官、贸易政策和移民法规的控制，而自身将付出经济和安全的巨大代价。长期以来硬脱欧看上去都无法避免。议会对梅的极端计划只能施以怯懦的抵抗，工党的反对也软弱无力。然而本周这股趋势遭到了转变。保守党内倒戈的国会议员看来很可能从政府攫取了脱欧最终阶段的控制权。同时，脱欧支持者也终于明白爱尔兰边境问题代表硬脱欧之路上有几乎不可逾越的障碍。随着谈判仅剩六个月不到的时间，英国脱欧明显变得梅所计划的要更软化。这对欧洲和英国都是好消息。
单词：
sb's clutches：the control of someone
opposition: （强烈的）反对，反抗，对抗
feeble: 虚弱的；衰弱的，无力的
wrest: 夺取；攫取
rebel:叛军（但新闻里用叛字太严重了，想了半天终于想起倒戈这个词）
endgame: （尤指讨论过程的）最后阶段，结束阶段 （想起了史传奇的We're in the endgame now）
insurmountable: （尤指问题或困难）难以克服的，不可逾越的
roadblock：路障
the penny dropped: 恍然大悟
Brexiteer: 脱欧论者，脱盟论者，想让英国退出欧盟的人
语法：Parliament’s resistance to Mrs May’s extreme plan has been timid and the Labour opposition feeble. 这是并列句中的省略现象。如果并列句中的左右两个分句主语虽然不同，但是两个分句有相同的be动词，那么可以省略连词和后一个分局的be动词 这里后一句the Labour opposition feeble是the Labour opposition (has been) feeble的省略形式。
背景（本段背景知识较多，所以花了比较长时间）：
1. 英国政体相关：
A. 英国议会（THE PARLIAMENT OF UNITED KINGDOM）又称威斯敏斯特议会，是英国的最高立法机关，是英国政治的中心舞台。政府从议会中产生，并对其负责。国会为两院制，英国议会由上院 （HOUSE OF LORDS）（贵族院）、下院（平民院）（HOUSE OF COMMONS）和国王共同组成，行使国家的最高立法权。
B. MP:英国议会下议院（英语：House of Commons），又称为下院、平民院或庶民院是英国国会的下院。英国国会由三大部份组成，它们分别是君主、作为上院的上议院，以及下议院，当中又以下议院最具影响力。下议院是一个透过民主选举产生的机构，内面共有650名成员，称为国会议员，常用的英文简写则是“MP”（Members of Parliament）。
C. 主要政党：
保守党，中间偏右至右翼（传统上为右翼）
工党，中间偏左（传统上为中间偏左至极左翼）
自由民主党，中间偏左（传统上为中间派）
苏格兰民族党，中间偏左；主要致力于苏格兰独立运动
http://www.wikiwand.com/en/List_of_political_parties_in_the_United_Kingdom#/Parliamentary_Parties
Tory: 托利党党员（的）；英国保守党党员（的），由于保守党乃发展自活跃于18及19世纪的托利党，所以它的党员常常会被称作托利党党员（Tories），而保守党亦时常被干脆称作托利党（Tory Party）。尽管在整个20世纪之中，保守党在其中三分之二的时间皆掌领了政府，不过保守党自从于1997年大选败于布莱尔领导的工党以后，它一直处于反对党的状态。
2.the Irish border: 大不列颠及北爱尔兰联合王国与爱尔兰共和国的边界，而爱尔兰共和国是欧洲联盟成员。英国明年3月正式退出欧盟，这条边界将从国界变成“欧盟区与非欧盟区”分界线。英方表示“脱欧”后将退出欧洲共同市场和欧盟关税同盟，意味着英欧如果不能达成自由贸易协议，这条边界将从货物和人员自由流动的“软边界”转为需要核查进出欧盟人员和货物并征收关税的“硬边界”。这种情形一旦出现，将形成英国与其他欧洲国家之间第一条陆地硬边界。
3.this week the tide turned.本周发生了什么事，会说趋势有了转变呢？
英国脱欧法案修正案12日在下议院投票表决，首相特蕾莎·梅在最后一刻做出让步，允许议会在脱欧事务上发挥更大影响力，最终以微弱优势险胜，也让英国有序脱欧露出一线曙光。该修正案是今年4月上议院针对特蕾莎·梅政府早前提出的脱欧法案所修订的多项条款，其中包括赋予议会权力，可以否决特蕾莎·梅与欧盟达成的任何脱欧协议，并为重启谈判制定新的条款，该修正案被视为议会在脱欧问题上掌握了重要话语权，如获通过将重创特蕾莎·梅的领导力。而在投票前夕，保守党内部就脱欧问题的矛盾再次公开化，一名支持留欧的司法部长因不满特蕾莎·梅的脱欧战略宣布辞职，一批保守党议员也密谋倒戈支持该修正案，这让特蕾莎·梅大为紧张，她约见了14名反叛的保守党议员，并向他们做出重大让步。虽然双方未透露他们达成妥协的具体内容，但有消息披露，特蕾莎·梅承诺议会在脱欧事务上将发挥重大影响力，包括答应一旦英国政府与欧盟方面未能达成脱欧协议，议员将有权决定下一步应该如何做。最终议会以324票对298票的微弱差距否决了修正案，这也让特蕾莎·梅赢得议会的关键性一仗。分析人士指，特蕾莎·梅瓦解了保守党内部亲欧派的一次反抗，也避免了英国在未达成协议的情况下硬脱欧的出现，让英国有序脱欧露出一线曙光。
U-bend if you want to 如有需要，回头再来
U-bend: 马蹄弯头，马蹄形弯头;
This week’s showdown got the government to promise MPs a “meaningful” vote on the deal Mrs May negotiates with the EU near the end of this year. The assumption had been that a vote to reject Mrs May’s version of Brexit would lead to a drastic “no deal” outcome, in which Britain simply left without covering its financial obligations or establishing its future relationship with the EU. That need no longer happen, because Parliament will now be able to force the government to start again.
本周的投票结果使政府承诺国会议员，会对梅在今年年底与欧盟谈判达成的协议进行“有意义”的投票。之前假设梅的脱欧方案一旦被投票否决，将导致后果激烈的无协议脱欧，即英国在既不履行其财政义务，也未和欧盟建立好未来关系的情况下直接脱离。这样的情况不会再发生，因为议会现在有能力迫使政府重新从头再来。
showdown: 决定胜负的大辩论；摊牌 an important argument that is intended to end a disagreement that has existed for a long time
背景：http://www.xinhuanet.com/world/2018-06/15/c_129894392.htm
这次修正案表决，英国政府作出的唯一重大让步是，同意议会在“脱欧”最终阶段掌控更多决策权。英国政府一直同意议会对政府与欧盟的“脱欧”协议投票表决，但结果只能是接受协议或无协议“脱欧”。上院提议，如果不接受协议条款、或协议谈崩，议会有权要求政府重新谈判。这项修正案获称“重要表决”。为对抗上院的“重要表决”，英国政府提出自己版本的修正案，即一旦“脱欧”协议遭议会否决，内阁大臣将在28天内就推动“脱欧”进程提出方案。然而，政府版本的修正案在12日议会辩论中未能安抚意图“反水”的保守党议员。政府随后被迫同意，在“脱欧”最终阶段赋予议会更多制衡权。
That still leaves plenty of room for a hard Brexit. Although the negotiations have laid bare the cost of such a policy, the government has stuck to its demands and red lines. Brexiteers bluster that any problems can be overcome with a bit of positivity and patriotism, or argue that they are a reasonable price to pay for freedom from Brussels. They have persuaded the prime minister that the referendum obliges her to take Britain out of the EU’s single market and customs union at any cost.
这依然为“硬脱欧”留下了足够的空间。尽管谈判已经揭露出这样的政策会付出何种代价，政府还是坚守自己的要求和红线。脱欧派气势汹汹地叫嚷着任何问题都只需要一点乐观和爱国主义就能克服，或者是争辩这些问题是为了从欧盟争取自由而付出的合理代价。他们已经劝服了首相，公投结果是责成她要不惜任何代价，带英国脱离欧盟的单一市场和关税同盟。
lay bare: 道破; 点破; 暴露，揭发，展开; 拆穿;
stick to: 遵守; 保留; 紧跟; 忠于;
bluster: 咆哮，气势汹汹地说（却通常作用不大）
关税同盟(Customs Union),是指成员国之间彻底取消了在商品贸易中的关税和数量限制，使商品在各成员国之间可以自由流动。另外，成员国之间还规定对来自非成员国的进口商品采取统一的限制政策,关税同盟外的商品不论进入同盟内的哪个成员国，都将被征收相同的关税，如早期的“欧洲经济共同体”和“东非共同体”。
But there is one area where Britain cannot opt for maximal separation, however great Mrs May’s appetite for self-harm. Brussels has demanded that in Northern Ireland, for the sake of peace, there must be no new checks or infrastructure at the border. Mrs May agreed to this in December, and has since been seeking a way to reconcile an independent trade policy with an invisible, open border. She has failed—unsurprisingly, since even the EU’s most frictionless frontiers, like those with Norway or Switzerland, involve some checks. So Britain will resort to a “backstop” plan, keeping Northern Ireland in the EU’s customs union until it finds a solution to the border problem, which it may never do. To avoid customs checks between Northern Ireland and the British mainland, which would incense the Northern Irish unionists who prop up Mrs May’s government, the customs union will cover the whole United Kingdom. And it will have no firm time limit.
但是，无论梅多热爱自伤自损，有一个领域英国是无法选择实行最大程度隔离的。欧盟已经提出了要求——为了和平，北爱尔兰必须不在边境线设置新的检查点或者基础设施。梅在12月同意了这点，并从那时起就在寻求一种方法，通过无形、开放的边界来调解达成独立的贸易政策。不出所料，她失败了。因为即使是欧盟最无摩擦的边界，例如挪威或瑞典的边界，都包含了一些检查站。所以英国将采用“担保”方案，即将北爱尔兰保持在欧盟关税同盟中，直至它找到解决边境问题的方法——也许永远也找不到。在北爱尔兰和英国本土之间发生海关检查，将会激怒支持梅政府的联合主义者。为避免发生这样的情况，关税联盟要覆盖整个英国，并且没有一个固定时间的限制。
opt for: 选择，挑选；（尤指）优先选择
frictionless: 无摩擦的;
resort to: 诉诸于，采取; 凭藉; 乞灵; 动用
frictionless frontiers：英国议会退出欧盟委员会１２月１日说，英国“脱欧”后退出欧盟单一市场和关税同盟的决定与实现英国和爱尔兰之间“无摩擦”边界的承诺相互矛盾，爱尔兰与英国北爱尔兰之间的边境检查可能无法避免。这个监督政府“脱欧”事务的委员会说，特雷莎·梅政府提出的用技术手段实现“轻触”边界等提议都“未经实测，某种程度上只是设想”。
backstop plan: 英国和欧盟就脱欧过渡期达成的原则协议，将于本周稍后的欧盟峰会上签署确认。英国同意在爱尔兰边界问题上的“担保”（backstop）方案，即若没有更好办法，北爱将继续留在欧盟关税同盟，但细节需要进一步讨论。欧盟认为任何脱欧协议，北爱和爱尔兰不会设立有形的边检关卡，以维持1998年终结冲突的“贝尔法斯特协议”。
incense: [vt]激怒，使大怒
unionist: 联合论者; 联合主义;
prop:撑; 支持，资助
小辨析： frontier 是一片区域。有面积；border 是边界线。只有长度；boundary 多指作为界线的标识物等。
长句：注意文中两个非限制性定语从句：So Britain will resort to a “backstop” plan, keeping Northern Ireland in the EU’s customs union until it finds a solution to the border problem, which（这里指代 it finds a solution to the border problem这件事） it may never do. To avoid customs checks between Northern Ireland and the British mainland, which （这里指代customs checks between Northern Ireland and the British mainland这件事）would incense the Northern Irish unionists who prop up Mrs May’s government, the customs union will cover the whole United Kingdom. 如果遇到句子太长的情况，可以试试先去掉非限制性定语从句的部分。非限制性定语从句与先行词关系不十分密切，只是对其作一些附加说明，不起限定制约作用。如果将非限制性定语从句省去，主句的意义仍然完整。
The softening may not end there. Britain has promised that its Northern Irish backstop will include “full alignment” with the relevant rules of the EU’s single market. Again, Mrs May might find that she has to apply this to the whole country, to avoid a unionist rebellion. Britain would thus find itself in a notionally temporary, but in fact indefinite, arrangement that included membership of the EU’s customs union and full alignment with much of the single market. Soft Brexit would have been achieved, via a backdoor in Belfast.
软化之路或许还未结束。英国承诺过其北爱尔兰的“担保”方案将包括与欧盟单一市场的相关规定“完全对接”。再一次，梅或许会发现她必须将此方案应用于整个国家，来避免联合派的反叛。英国会发现它处于个看起来是临时性，事实上是无限期的约定中，其中包括作为欧盟的关税同盟成员国和完全遵守单一市场大部分内容。软脱欧的目标可能会通过北爱尔兰的后门借以达成。
notionally:想象地
indefinite: 不确定的；不清楚的；无限期的
Belfast:北爱尔兰地区的最大海港，指代北爱
长句：Britain would thus find itself in a (notionally temporary, but in fact indefinite,) arrangement that included membership (of the EU’s customs union) and full alignment (with much of the single market.)
主干： Britian would find itself in a arrangement；
修饰arrangement: (notionally) temporary, but (in fact) indefinite；
说明arrangement: that included membership (of the EU’s customs union说明membership) and full alignment (with much of the single market.说明alignment)
Soft, strong and very long
Though the logic of the negotiations now points to a soft exit, such an outcome is not yet inevitable. Britain’s soft landing outside the EU faces three main risks. The first is that the rest of the EU leaves Ireland in the lurch and drops its demand that the border remain invisible. But EU leaders’ language on the border has if anything been toughening.
尽管现在谈判的思路指向了软脱欧，最终结果却未必是板上钉钉。英国要在脱离欧盟之陆上软着陆面临着三个主要风险。第一是如果欧盟其他国家将爱尔兰弃之不顾，放弃边境保持无形的要求。但欧盟领导人在边界问题上的说法只在愈加强硬。
lurch: [v]摇晃，晃动；（尤指）突然倾斜 leave sb in the ~: 丢下（某人）不管，撇下（某人）不管
toughen: 使坚韧；使变结实；加强
The second risk is popular outrage when the EU refuses to give Britain privileged access to the single market unless it allows the free movement of people. If, as seems likely, the EU refuses to dilute this principle, Britain could apply brakes that some member states have already used: registering new migrants, limiting their access to benefits and even excluding them from public-sector jobs. That may be enough to appease some Brexit voters, given that net migration of EU citizens has already fallen more than half since the referendum. Others might be bought off if Mrs May fulfilled other Brexit promises, such as stumping up more money for the health service. And although a hard core would never forgive any softening of Brexit, many more will tune out next March, once Brexit is formally achieved and the blue passports have been issued.
第二个风险是当欧盟拒绝给予英国单一市场特权准入，除非英国允许人员自由流动时，会引发起民愤。如果（目前看起来很有可能）欧盟拒绝放宽这条原则，那英国可以使用某些成员国已经使用的方法，来踩下移民流动的刹车：注册新的移民，限制他们的福利，甚至将他们除非在公共职能部门的工作之外。考虑到自公投以来，英国的欧盟公民净移民量已经下降了一半以上，这些措施或许足够取悦一些脱欧投票者了。如果梅实现其他脱欧承诺，比如为公共医疗卫生服务掏腰包，其他人或许也会被收买。尽管硬核分子永远不会原谅软化的脱欧做法，一旦明年3月，脱欧正式达成，蓝色护照也已经发行时，许多人更多的是冷漠以对。
outrage: 愤慨，义愤
apply brakes: 踩下制动踏板
public-sector: 公共部门
net migration: the net migration rate is the difference between the number of immigrants (people coming into an area) and the number of emigrants (people leaving an area) throughout the year. 净移民; 净迁徙; 净迁移;一年中移入者和移居者的数量之差
buy off: 买通; 贿赂，收买（某人）
stump up: 拔去树桩，<美俚>付清，掏腰包;
tune out: 不理，对…无反应;
理解： If, as seems likely, the EU refuses to dilute this principle, Britain could apply brakes that some member states have already used: registering new migrants, limiting their access to benefits and even excluding them from public-sector jobs. 前面说到的风险是欧盟逼迫英国要允许人员自由流动，以此会引发民愤。即英国民众会反对人员自由流动。那英国的应对措施是什么样的呢？apply brakes 字面上是踩下刹车，实际上是对移民流动进行控制。如何控制：即下文提到的，允许新移民注册，但限制福利，也限制工种。
参考硬脱欧之“得与失” http://www.iwep.org.cn/xscg/xscg_lwybg/201704/W020170408318966230517.pdf
英国的硬脱欧主要指的是，英国不同意适度放松边界主权、以有条件允许欧盟移民入境为筹码，换取其留在共同市场的特权。硬脱欧较之软脱欧、不脱欧，现了特雷莎·梅不想在一些问题领域打任何折扣。
The gravest risk for Mrs May is not the will of the people—polls suggest most Britons favour a soft Brexit. It is the Europhobic wing of her own Tory party. If the prime minister seems to be going soft, her MPs may trigger a leadership challenge. But she might well win such a contest, given the lack of obvious replacements. Even if she fell, her successor would run into the same problem in Northern Ireland. Some Tories complain that the Northern Irish tail is wagging the British dog; they might prefer to see a customs border in the Irish Sea than the wrecking of their hard-Brexit dream. Yet the government’s reliance on unionist votes makes this tail hard to ignore. Would a diehard Brexiteer prime minister risk yet another election, in a bid to win enough seats to ditch the unionists? It would be a reckless gamble that exhausted voters might punish.
梅最严峻的风险不在于民众的意愿，投票显示大多数英国人更偏好“软脱欧”，风险在于她自家保守党中的“恐欧派”。如果首相有软化的迹象，或许会触发她的国会议员们针对她领导位置的一场挑战。但由于缺乏明显的人选取而代之，她很有可能赢下这场争斗。即使她失败了，她的继承者也会在北爱尔兰一事上陷入同样的问题。有些保守党人报怨英国问题受到北爱尔兰这件小事的摆布是尾巴摇狗；比起他们的“硬脱欧”梦想遭到破坏，他们更愿看到在爱尔兰海处设立海关边界。然而政府依赖于联合派的投票数，使北爱尔兰这条尾巴的作用无法被忽视。一个死硬的脱欧派首相是否还会冒着另一场选举的风险，只为企图获得足够席位来废弃联合派的主张？精疲力竭的投票者们会对这样一场缺少思虑的赌博予以惩罚。
grave: [a.]严重的，重大的，严峻的 [n.]坟墓 风险不一定要用big, huge来形容，也可以用grave来表达
the tail wagging the dog: The smallest or least important part of something in control of the larger or more important elements; a reversal of typical roles or dynamics of power. 一件小事控制一件大事的走向。這種倒轉過來的倚賴模式（Reversed dependency model），在政治學裏面有一個非正式名詞：「尾巴搖狗」（The tail wags the dog），在中國文化裏面，「狗」是一個不敬的謔稱，在英文裏面卻沒有很重的貶意，按照常理，狗控制怎樣搖擺尾巴，但這種主從關係，有時候會倒轉過來。
diehard： 顽固分子，死硬分子
in a bid to: an attempt to achieve or get something 企图得到；努力争取
ditch: 抛弃，遗弃，丢弃
yet: 再，还（用于强调 another 或 again 之类的词，尤指数量增加或某事发生频繁）
Rachel bought yet another pair of shoes to add to her collection.
雷切尔已经有那么多鞋，居然又买了一双。
I'm sorry to bother you yet again.
我很抱歉又来麻烦你。
段落分析：这一段注意逻辑关系，尤其是各种关联语：
The risk is not...It is ...（承上启下，上文讲欧盟的原则可能会引起民愤，这里讲民愤也不是梅姨最严重的风险，第二个It is引出第三个风险）
If ..., her MPs... （为什么说内部恐欧派是最大风险？通过假设，说明风险的内容，他们可能直接触发对梅姨领导地位的挑战）
But she..., given ... （假设的结果一）
Even if ...（假设的结果二）通过两个假设，说明风险可以被解决
Some Tories complain...;they might prefer...（表明Europhobic wing可能的主张）
Yet the government's reliance...（表明政府可能的主张）
Would prime minister risk yet another election...? 反问句，引出作者看法，即梅姨没有必要冒这样的风险，软脱欧是更好的选择
The road to a soft Brexit is bumpy. But the remorseless logic of the Irish border is pushing Britain in that direction. And then what? Some Leavers see a soft Brexit as a transition to a complete break. Some Remainers see it as a platform from which to rejoin the EU. Others, from both camps, think that such a semidetached state is the worst of all worlds. History suggests that Britain might be in for a long stay in transition. Norway, the model cited by many for a soft Brexit, entered a temporary economic arrangement with the EU in 1994. It is still in force.
通往“软脱欧”的路上崎岖不平。但爱尔兰边界问题的逻辑无情地把英国推向这个方向。然后又如何？一些脱欧支持者将“软脱欧”视为完全割裂的过渡，一些留欧支持者将其视作重回欧盟平台。来自两方阵营的另一些人认为这种半脱离状态是所有情况里最糟糕的。历史暗示着英国或许会在过渡期停留很长一段时间。挪威，这个被许多人引为软脱欧范例的国家，在1994年与欧盟达成了一项临时性的经济协议，至今协议仍然有效。
remorseless: 无情的；不悔恨的；不知自责的；无休止的；不停的
cite: 举例，引证
背景：挪威不是欧盟成员，只是欧洲经济区(EEA)成员国。
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