【经济学人双语阅读】The next recession 衰退将至

When the downturn comes, toxic politics and constrained central banks will add to the risks 当衰退来临之时，乌烟瘴气的政治和捉襟见肘的央行将令风险雪上加霜

Just a year ago the world was enjoying a syncronised economic acceleraton. In 2017 growth rose in every big advanced economy except Britain, and in most emerging ones. Global trade was surging and America booming; China's slide into deflation had been quelled; even the euro zone was thriving. In 2018 the stroy is very different. This week stockmarkets tumbled across the globe as investors worried, for the second time this year, about slowing growth and the effects of tighter American monetary policy. Those fears are well-founded.

就在一年前，全球经济还在享受整体加速状态。2017年，除英国之外，所有发达国家和大部分新兴国家的经济都呈现增长态势。全球贸易激增，美国经济繁荣；中国通货紧缩势头得以遏制；就连欧元区也呈现蓬勃发展。而2018年却好景不再。本周，全球股市全面崩盘，投资者在年内二度为全球经济增速放缓和美国收紧货币政策带来的影响而忧心忡忡。这种担忧是有道理的。

The world economy's problem in 2018 has been uneven momentum. In America President Donald Trump's tax cuts have helped lift annualised quarterly growth above 4%. Unemployment is at its lowest since 1969. Yet the IMF thinks growth will slow this year in every other big advanced economy. And emerging markets are in trouble.

2018年，世界经济的问题在于两极分化。在特朗普减税政策的助力之下，美国年化季度经济增长率达到4%以上，失业率下降至1969年以来的最低点。而世界货币基金组织表示，今年所有其他发达国家的经济增长均会放缓，而新兴市场则问题更大。

This divergency between America and the rest means divergent monetary policies, too. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates eight times since December 2015. The European Central Bank(ECB) is still a long way from its first increase. In Japan rates are negative. China, the principal target of Mr Trump's trade war, relaxed monetary plicy this week in response to a weakening economy. When interest rates rise in America but nowhere else, the dollar strengthens. That makes it harder for emerging markets to repay their dollar debts. A rising greenback has already helped propel Argentina and Turkey into trouble; this week Pakistan asked the IMF for a bail-out.

美国与其他各国的这种差异同样也体现在货币政策上。自2015年12月以来，美联储已进行八次加息。而欧洲央行（ECB）距离首次加息依旧遥遥无期。日本维持在负利率水平。作为特朗普贸易战的主要目标，中国为应对持续疲软的经济，于本周放宽了货币政策。只有美国加息，而其他国家不加，导致美元走强。这进一步加重了新兴市场偿还美债的负担。美元升值已经拖垮了阿根廷和土耳其；本周，巴基斯坦也向国际货币基金组织申请了救济。

Emerging markets account for 59% of the world's output(measured by purchasing power), up from 43% just two decades ago, when the Asian financial crisis hit. Their problems could soon wash back onto America's shores, just as Uncle Sam's domestic boom starts to peter out. The rest of the world could be in a worse state by then, too, if Italy's budget difficulties do not abate or China suffers a sharp slowdown.

新兴市场占全球产出的59%（以购买力衡量），相比20年前亚洲金融危机时的43%有所上升。待到美国经济繁荣消退之时，新兴市场的问题将快速席卷美国本土。届时，倘若意大利的预算困境未能缓解，或中国的经济增长出现急速放缓，那么其他地区的形势还将进一步恶化。

Cutting-roomfloors

降息下限

The good news is that banking systems are more resilient than a decade ago, when the crisis struck. The chance of a downturn as severe as the one that struck then is low. Emerging markets are inflicting losses on investors, but in the main their real economies seem to be holding up. The trade war has yet to cause serious harm, even in China. If America’s boom gives way to a shallow recession as fiscal stimulus diminishes and rates rise, that would not be unusual after a decade of growth.

好消息是，与十年前相比，如今银行体系的危机复原能力更加健全。出现当时那种严重经济危机的几率并不大。新兴市场让投资者蒙受损失，但其实体经济总体看来还撑得住。贸易战尚未造成严重后果，即便在中国亦是如此。如果随着财政刺激的减少和持续加息，美国的经济繁荣将来被轻微衰退所取，那么，鉴于美国已持续十年实现经济增长，这种更替也并不算少见。

Yet this is where the bad news comes in. As our special report this week sets out, the rich world in particular is ill-prepared to deal with even a mild recession. That is partly because the policy arsenal is still depleted from fighting the last downturn. In the past half-century, the Fed has typically cut interest rates by five or so percentage points in a downturn. Today it has less than half that room before it reaches zero; the euro zone and Japan have no room at all.

然而，坏消息也恰恰来自这一点。正如本周特别报告所指出的，哪怕是一场温和的衰退，各国也都承受不起了，尤其是富有国家。其中部分原因在于，在对抗上一轮经济衰退时，各国的政策火力悉数用尽，现在已经没有子弹了。在过去的半个世纪中，美联储在经济衰退期间曾经累计降息5个百分点左右。而今天，就算美国降至零利率，其下调空间也未及当年的一半；而欧元区和日本已经没有任何降息空间了。

Policy makers have other options, of course. Central banks could use the now-familiar policy of quantitative easing (QE), the purchase of securities with newly created central-bank reserves. The efficacy of QE is debated, but if that does not work, they could try more radical, untested approaches, such as giving money directly to individuals. Governments can boost spending, too. Even countries with large debt burdens can benefit from fiscal stimulus during recessions.

当然，决策者还有其他选择。央行可以使用如今耳熟能详的量化宽松政策（QE），通过新增央行储备来购买国债。QE的功过尚无定论，但是，如果这招不管用，他们还可以尝试更极端且未曾检验的新方法，例如直接将钱发到个人手中等等。政府也可以扩大财政支出。在衰退时期，即便是重度负债国家，依然可以从财政刺激中获益。

The question is whether using these weapons is politically acceptable. Central banks will enter the next recession with balance-sheets that are already swollen by historical standards—the Fed’s is worth 20% of GDP. Opponents of QE say that it distorts markets and inflates asset bubbles, among other things. No matter that these views are largely misguided; fresh bouts of QE would attract even closer scrutiny than last time. The constraints are particularly tight in the euro zone, where the ECB is limited to buying 33% of any country’s public debt.

而问题在于，上述手段在政治上是否可以被接受。步入下一轮经济衰退时，各国央行的资产负债表早已根据历史标准水涨船高——美联储的为GDP的20%。反对QE的人认为，这扭曲了市场，加剧了资产泡沫，还会产生其他副作用。不论这些看法是否被严重误导，与上次相比，新的QE将接受更加严格的监督，其限制条件将更为苛刻，尤其是在欧元区，因为欧洲央行的国债购买比例不得超过33%。

Spending ceilings

支出上限

Fiscal stimulus would also attract political opposition, regardless of the economic arguments. The euro zone is again the most worrying case, if only because Germans and other northern Europeans fear that they will be left with unpaid debts if a country defaults. Its restrictions on borrowing are designed to restrain profligacy, but they also curb the potential for stimulus. America is more willing to spend, but it has recently increased its deficit to over 4% of GDP with the economy already running hot. If it needs to widen the deficit still further to counter a recession, expect a political fight.

不管经济上如何争论，财政刺激政策都会招致政治上的反对。只要德国人或其他北欧人担心一旦某国违约，他们就得收拾坏账的烂摊子，那欧元区就会再次成为最令人担心的地方。之所以设立借贷限制，目的是为了遏制挥霍无度，但这同样限制了财政刺激政策的潜力。美国扩大财政支出的意愿更强烈，然而随着经济回暖，美国的财政赤字最近已经上升到GDP的4%以上。如果为了应对经济衰退，美国需要进一步扩大赤字，那么一场政治大战将无可避免。

Politics is an even greater obstacle to international action. Unprecedented cross-border co-operation was needed to fend off the crisis in 2008. But the rise of populists will complicate the task of working together. The Fed’s swap lines with other central banks, which let them borrow dollars from America, might be a flashpoint. And falling currencies may feed trade tensions. This week Steve Mnuchin, the treasury secretary, warned China against “competitive devaluations”. Mr Trump’s belief in the harm caused by trade deficits is mistaken when growth is strong. But when demand is short, protectionism is a more tempting way to stimulate the economy.

对于国际行动而言，政治上的阻碍甚至会更大。2008年的经济危机需要各国采取史无前例的跨国行动来共同抵御。然而，民粹主义的兴起，将令合作变得更加复杂。美联储与其他央行的货币互换，即允许他国央行从美国境内拆借美元，有可能成为导火索。各国货币贬值有可能加剧贸易的紧张程度。本周，美国财长史蒂芬·努钦警告人民币不要“竞争性贬值”。特朗普总统认为贸易赤字会损害经济，在经济强劲增长时，这种观点其实是错误的。不过，当需求短缺时，保护主义的确是刺激经济的上策。

Timely action could avert some of these dangers. Central banks could have new targets that make it harder to oppose action during and after a crisis. If they established a commitment ahead of time to make up lost ground when inflation undershoots or growth disappoints, expectations of a catch-up boom could provide an automatic stimulus in any downturn. Alternatively, raising the inflation target today could over time push up interest rates, giving more room for rate cuts. Future fiscal stimulus could be baked in now by increasing the potency of “automatic stabilisers”—spending on unemployment insurance, say, which goes up as economies sag. The euro zone could relax its fiscal rules to allow for more stimulus.

及时行动可以避免上述某些危险。在经济危机当下或过后，央行可以设立新的通胀目标，加大阻碍国际合作的难度。如果央行提前承诺，将在通胀低于预期或经济增长不尽人意时收复失地，那么，对于奋起直追的经济繁荣的预期，将在任何低迷时期自动刺激经济。又或者，央行可以现在提高通胀目标，这将在一段时间内推高利率，为降息赢得更大空间。未来的财政政策也可以现在就出炉，加强“自动稳定器”的性能，比如，即对失业保险的投入，当经济下滑时，这部分费用将随之上升。而欧元区则可以放开财政限制，为更大的刺激政策放行。

Pre-emptive action calls for initiative from politicians, which is conspicuously absent. This week’s market volatility suggests time could be short. The world should start preparing now for the next recession, while it still can.

先发制人要求政治家们主动作为，而这一点，目前严重缺位。本周的市场波动说明，时间已经所剩无几。趁还来得及，赶紧开始为下一次经济衰退做好准备吧。