Rural Japan Old, shrinking and broke 老人，萎缩与破碎 IMABETSU 今別（青森县今别町）

The burden of an ageing and declining population is felt most keenly in the countryside

在乡村地区，老龄化与人口下降的负担最为明显

When Hisaaki Nakajima ran for mayor of Imabetsu, on the northernmost tip of Honshu, Japan’s main island, he said he had a vision of a town of 2,000 people. That may have sounded odd, given that Imabetsu had 2,700 inhabitants at the time (in 2017). But it is shrinking fast. Since Mr. Nakajima took office, the population has declined by around 150, or some 6%. On a pleasant spring-day the streets are almost empty; many buildings are disused. A big pachinko（パチンコ）parlor at the entrance to the town lies in ruin.

当中岛久彰（中嶋久彰）竞选今别町（位于日本本州岛的东北端）町长时，他表示他有一个对人口为2000人的小城镇的愿景。鉴于今别町在2017年时有2700名居民，这也许听起来很奇怪。但是人口缩水的很快。自从中岛就任起，人口下降了150人，大约占6%。在一个愉快的春日 ，街道上几乎空无一人；许多建筑物遭受废弃。小镇入口处的一家大弹珠机店已成为废墟。

Villages and towns across Japan have been shrinking for decades because of migration to big cities. Since 2011 the national population has been falling, too. Last year it shrank by 450,000. The two trends are emptying rural areas: whereas Japan as a whole is projected to lose 16% of its population between 2015 and 2045, the population of Aomori prefecture, where Imabetsu is located, will plunge 37%, reckons the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (NIPSSR), a think-tank in Tokyo.

由于过去几十年来，人口涌向大城市，日本各地的村镇一直在萎缩。自2011年起，日本人口也在开始下降。2018年减少了45万人。乡村地区人口减少有两个趋势：东京的智库，社会保障人口问题研究所估计，在2015至2045年间，日本整体人口将减少16%，今别町所处的青森县将暴跌37%，

The numbers tell only part of the story. Locals who move away, who account for around two-thirds of the 150 people Imabetsu has lost since Mr. Nakajima took office, are predominantly young people seeking education or work. (Jobs in Imabetsu are mainly in farming and fishing.) Youto Komura, a 27-year-old who works at the town hall, says only six of the 40 people he went to school with still live in Imabetsu. Only one of the four children of Mr. Nakajima, who worked in a sewing shop and flower shop before becoming mayor, remains; the others are in Tokyo, Sapporo and Aomori city.

这些数字仅仅是这个故事的一部分，自从中岛上任以来，当地居民搬走了，其占今别町150名流失人口中的三分之二。其中大部分是求学和工作的年轻人。（今别町的工作以牧业和渔业为主。）27岁的在市政府工作的小村友图表示，在他的同学中，40个人仅剩6个人还生活在今别。在中岛成为町长前，他的四个孩子中只有一个还在今别的缝纫店和花店工作；其他三个孩子分别在东京、札幌（さっぽろ）和青森（あおもり）生活。

Women leave in greater numbers than men, says Hiroya Masuda, the author of an alarming report on rural. “There is a glass ceiling for women everywhere, but in rural areas it tends to be made of thick steel,” he says. “In offices in rural areas they tend to be pouring tea, while in Tokyo there is more chance of fulfilling jobs.” Young men who might otherwise stick around are put off by the lack of potential brides.

一份令人担忧的农村人口减少的报告的作者，增田博也表示，离开农村的女性人数比男性要多。他表示，“到处都有女性的玻璃天花板，但在农村，天花板往往是由厚钢板制成的。在农村，她们往往只能去端茶，但在东京有更多令人满意的工作机会。”由于缺少潜在的新娘，要不然可能停留的年轻男性会止步。

This movement of young people, and Japan’s long and lengthening life expectancy, has led to an extraordinary preponderance of old people in far-flung places. Some 37% of those living in depopulated areas are over the age of 65, about ten percentage points more than the national rate, according to the government. Imabetsu has the accolade of being the town with the highest proportion of over-65s in Aomori: they are already around half the population.

年轻人的这种流动，加上日本预期寿命的延长，导致了在偏远地区，老年人的比例占绝大部分。据政府统计，人口稀少的地区中，约37%的人年龄在65岁以上，比全国平均水平高出10%。今别町被誉为青森县65岁以上人口比例最高的城镇：他们早已大约占人口的半数。

Because baby-boomers are starting to die off, the depopulation of rural areas is set to spike, reckons Shiro Koike of the NIPSSR. In 2014, Mr. Masuda predicted that 896 of Japan’s 1,700 municipalities would be extinct by 2040. He has now revised that to 929. In the five years to 2016, by the government’s count, 190 places disappeared from the map (although a handful of those were emptied by the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster of 2011).

社会保障人口问题研究所的小池城估计，由于婴儿潮一代开始去世，农村地区的人口减少势必会激增。2014年，增田预测，到2040年，日本1700个市中，将会有896会消失。他现在修改为929个。根据政府的统计，在截至2016年的五年中，有190个地方从地图上消失了(尽管其中一些地方在2011年的地震、海啸和核灾难中被清空)。

The impact of the dwindling population in rural areas is clear to see. Imabetsu has no supermarkets and no restaurants, cafés or snack bars, bar the konbini (convenience store) on the outskirts of the town. In the 1980s, residents say, there were dozens of lunch joints. Now the townsfolk must drive elsewhere or wait for occasional visits from trucks that sell vegetables.

农村地区人口减少的影响清晰可见。今别町没有超市、餐馆、咖啡馆、快餐店、郊区的便利店。居民表示，在1980年代，这里有几十家午餐店。但现在，市民们必须开车去其他地方，或者等待卖蔬菜的卡车的偶尔到来。

The three schools have only 30 to 40 children each. From October one will stop accepting new pupils. “It is not good for the children,” says Mr. Nakajima. “They need company, competition, a healthy atmosphere.” In depopulated areas primary schools have on average 118 pupils each; those in the rest of the country have 320. There are also fewer pediatricians and obstetricians than the national average.

这三家学校各自仅有30到40名学生。从10月起，一所学校将停止招收新生。中岛表示，“这对孩子们很不好，他们需要陪伴、竞争和一个健康的氛围。”在人口减少的地方，每所小学平均只有118名学生；而在本国的其他地区，这一数字为320。儿科医生和产科医生也低于国家平均水平。

The national government wants to raise the fertility rate from 1.4 children per woman to 1.8. To that end, it is trying to provide more support for families, such as making nursery free. It has also begun admitting more migrants, but not enough to compensate for the decline in the native population— and anyway, the government insists it will not let them settle permanently. What is more, immigrants, like Japanese themselves, prefer to live in cities.

国家政府 希望将生育率从每名妇女生育1.4个孩子提升到1.8个。为此，政府正试图为家庭提供更多的支持，比如免费提供托儿所。它也开始接纳更多的移民，但这不足以弥补本国人口的减少——并且无论如何，政府坚称不会让他们永久定居。更重要的是，移民和日本人自己一样，更喜欢住在城市而非农村。

Shrinking localities tend to focus on trying to get people from elsewhere in Japan to move there. They talk not just of encouraging people to return to the countryside from cities but also of persuading people to move from towns to rural areas. Many offer families free housing and other subsidies to attract younger people. Imabetsu offers free school lunches and free cancer treatment. But the number of people such incentives attract is very small (zero in Imabetsu’s case). They “will never change the demographic dynamics of slow, steady decline”, says Peter Matanle of Sheffield University in Britain.

萎缩的地方政府倾向于集中精力让日本其他地方的人搬到那里。他们不仅谈到鼓励人们从城市回到农村，而且还说服人们从城镇回到农村。许多地方政府为家庭提供免费住房和其他补贴，以吸引年轻人。今别町提供免费的学校午餐和免费的癌症治疗。但这种激励措施吸引的人数非常少(今别町为零)。英国谢菲尔德大学的彼得•马坦勒表示，它们“永远不会改变人口缓慢而稳定下降的趋势”

There are some more successful campaigns, of course. Tokushima prefecture has attracted IT companies by setting up a fast internet connection. But as Karen Makishima, an MP for Kanagawa in eastern Japan, points out: “Many towns want to have people move there permanently. But Japan as a whole is losing people so if we shift people, other places lose out.” She thinks the solution is to work on attracting domestic and especially international tourism, which is growing rapidly. To that end, she is trying to encourage people to buy holiday homes in her region, or to make regular visits, in part by creating relationships between visitors and locals. The depopulating islands of the Seto Inland Sea, in south-eastern Japan, are a model for this sort of initiative. Visitors flock there to see new art installations.

当然，还有一些更成功的活动。德岛县通过建立快速互联网连接吸引了IT公司。但正如日本东部神奈川县议员卡伦•马岛所指出的那样:“许多城镇希望人们永久性地迁往那里。但日本整体上正在失去人口，所以如果我们转移人口，其他地方就会失去人口。” 她认为解决办法是努力吸引国内旅游业，尤其是正在迅速发展的国际旅游业。为此，她正试图鼓励人们在她的地区购买度假屋，或进行定期访问，在一定程度上，在游客和当地人之间建立关系。日本东南部濑户内海处人口减少的岛屿，就是这类举措的一个典范。游客蜂拥而至观看新的艺术设施。

In the absence of such a lifeline, the local government in Imabetsu is struggling to pay for education, health care and other services. Its budget is 2.4bn yen ($223m) a year. Only half of that comes from the national government on a routine basis, although one-off grants and money funnelled via the prefectural government help make up the shortfall. Local tax revenue has been dwindling for years, and now brings in only 200m yen a year. The town has resorted at times to borrowing, Mr. Nakajima says, but the cost of servicing the debt only adds to its fiscal problems in the long run.

在缺乏这样一条生命线的情况下，今别的地方政府正在努力支付教育、医疗和其他服务的费用。其预算为每年24亿日元(2.23亿美元)。其中只有一半按惯例来自中央政府，尽管通过地方政府提供的一次性拨款和资金汇集有助于弥补缺口。多年来，日本地方税收一直在下降，现在的年收入仅为2亿日元。中岛表示，，该镇有时会求助于借贷，但从长远来看，偿债成本只会加剧其财政问题。

The central government has tried to help places like Imabetsu, not only by upping the budget for “rural revitalization”, but also through a scheme called furusato nozei, which allows taxpayers to send a proportion of their taxes to a locality of their choice, instead of the one where they live (towns and villages compete for this cash by offering gifts in return, such as local sake or dried fish). The intention is for emigrants from rural areas to the cities to be able to funnel money to their hometowns.

中央政府曾试图帮助今别町这样的地方，不仅通过提高 “农村振兴”的预算，还通过一个叫做“故乡税（故郷の税）”的新方案，纳税人可以将一部分税款送到他们选择的地方，而不是他们居住地(城镇和村庄通过提供礼物作为回报如当地的米酒或干鱼等，来争夺现金)。其目的是让从农村地区到城市的移民能够把钱汇回自己的家乡。

Nonetheless, small towns are having to cut back. In some areas local authorities are trying to gather services in one town, from which they offer transport to other towns and villages in a sort of hub-and-spoke model. Others are looking at ridesharing as a way to relieve the pressure on, or replace, public transport. Private businesses such as konbini and the post office, which by law has to have outposts in remote places, are also being used to offer public services. Technology could help. “It may be fun to get pizza by drone in Tokyo, but more important is getting milk and newspapers to elderly people in rural areas,” says Ms. Makishima. She also advocates online medical consultations.

尽管如此，小城镇不得不削减开支。在一些地区，地方当局正试图将服务集中在一个城镇，从那里他们以一种中心辐射型的模式向其他城镇和村庄提供交通服务。其他人则将拼车视为缓解或替代公共交通压力的一种方式。像便利店和邮局这样的私营企业也被用来提供公共服务。根据法律规定，邮局必须在偏远地区设立前哨站。技术可以提供帮助。槙岛女士说:“在东京用无人机买披萨可能很有趣，但更重要的是给农村地区的老年人送牛奶和报纸。”她还提倡在线医疗咨询。

Mr. Nakajima’s vision for Imabetsu is modest: to promote tourism, preserve existing industries rather than try to conjure up new ones, use remote instruction to keep schools going and create a single hub for people to obtain information and services. Yet even that is a struggle, he says. For example, the town government looked at taxi-sharing, but found it unfeasible since Imabetsu has only one taxi. Next time he runs, it may have to be with a vision of even fewer people.

中岛对今别町的愿景是适度的：促进旅游业，保护现有产业，而不是试图创造新的产业，利用远程教学来维持学校的运转，为人们创造一个获取信息和服务的单一中心。但他表示，即便如此，这也是一场斗争。例如，町政府考虑出租汽车共享，但发现这是不可行的，因为今别町只有一辆出租车。下次他竞选时，可能不得不以更少的人作为他的愿景。