CR中的常见隐藏错误整理

1. 幸存者偏差（沉默的数据/死人不会说话）

沉默的大多数，造成了一次又一次的幸存者偏差

只看到经过某种筛选而产生的结果，没有意识到筛选的过程，因此忽略了被筛选掉的关键信息。

【例题1】Guidebook writer: I have visited hotels throughout the country and have noticed that in those built before 1930 the quality of the original carpentry work is generally superior to that in hotels built afterward. Clearly carpenters working on hotels before 1930 typically worked with more skill, care, and effort than carpenters who have worked on hotels built subsequently.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the guidebook writer’s argument?

答案：The better the quality of original carpentry in a building, the less likely that building is to fall into disuse and be demolished.

【例题2】Journalist: In late 1994, the present government of the Republic of Bellam came into power. Each year since then, about thirty journalists have been imprisoned for printing articles that criticize the government. In 1994, under the old government, only six journalists were imprisoned for criticizing the government. So the old government was more tolerant of criticism by the press than the new one is.

Politician: But in 1994 only six journalists criticized the government, and now journalists routinely do.

批评的人vs被抓的人，沉默的数据：批评了但没被抓的人

The politician challenges the journalist’s argument by doing which of the following?

答案：Introducing evidence that undermines an assumption of the journalist’s argument

【例题3】People who have spent a lot of time in contact with animals often develop animal-induced allergies, some of them quite serious. In a survey of current employees in major zoos, about 30 percent had animal-induced allergies. Based on this sample, experts conclude that among members of the general population who have spent a similarly large amount of time in close contact with animals, the percentage with animal-induced allergies is not 30 percent but substantially more.

Which of the following, if true, provides the strongest grounds for the experts' conclusion?

答案：A zoo employee who develops a serious animal-induced allergy is very likely to switch to some other occupation. 过敏的原员工会换工作，所以实际上30%的统计是偏少的；沉默的数据：换了工作的动物园前员工

【例题4】Press Secretary: Our critics claim that the President's recent highway project cancellations demonstrate a vindictive desire to punish legislative districts controlled by opposition parties. They offer as evidence the fact that 90 percent of the projects canceled were in such districts. But all of the canceled projects had been identified as wasteful in a report written by respected nonpartisan auditors. So the President's choice was clearly motivated by sound budgetary policy, not partisan politics.

Which of the following is an assumption on which the press secretary's argument depends?

取消的项目实际是被定义为浪费的项目的子集

答案：The scheduled highway projects identified as wasteful in the report were not mostly projects in districts controlled by the President's party.