新兴市场的崛起，前路漫漫 | 经济学人财经
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Emerging-market stocks 音频： 进度条 00:00 06:10 后退15秒 倍速 快进15秒
Finance and economics | Buttonwood
财经 | 梧桐树专栏
英文部分选自经济学人20220910财经版块
Finance and economics | Buttonwood
财经 | 梧桐树专栏
So near to a good year
那么近，又那么远
Emerging-market stocks are struggling in an intangible world
新兴市场股市在“无形”的世界里挣扎前行
Halfway through the year, as commodity prices soared and stockmarkets plunged, it looked as if emerging-market stocks might do something they had managed only once in the past decade: to beat the returns of American ones. Two months on and the hope is gone. A small bounce in rich-world share prices means emerging-market underperformance will probably continue.
今年上半年，随着大宗商品价格飙升和股市暴跌，新兴市场股票似乎有望近十年里第二次在回报率上高出美股一头。两个月过去，希望破灭了。富裕国家股价的小幅反弹意味着新兴市场的表现可能会持续低迷。
America’s interest-rate rises—and the expectation of more to come this year—have not helped emerging-market economies, especially those with large import bills and dollar-denominated debts. Over the past decade, though, the performance of the dollar has been mixed and interest rates low. In the same period, the msci em index has returned just 2.9% a year, against 9.5% for rich-world stocks.
美国利率的上升以及今年还会继续加息的预期并没有给新兴市场经济体带来帮助，尤其是那些持有大量进口账单和以美元计价债务的经济体。不过，在过去十年中，美元表现不一，利率保持低位，同期MSCI新兴市场指数的年回报率仅为2.9%，而发达国家股票的回报率为9.5%。
注释:
MSCI，就是Morgan Stanley Capital International的缩写，是一家美国的指数编制公司，中文名叫明晟公司，总部在纽约。MSCI提供全球指数和相关衍生金融产品，其MSCI指数被投资者广泛引用。超过90%的国际机构股票资产基于MSCI指数。MSCI新兴市场指数主要面向新兴国家的资本市场，涵盖了5个美洲市场、10个欧洲、中东和非洲市场以及8个亚洲市场等23个新兴市场，亚洲的新兴市场占该指数的70.25%。
A big problem is the growing gap between emerging-market and rich-world profits. In the heyday of emerging-market returns, before the global financial crisis of 2007-09, margins for the two indices were similar. But unlike American stocks, emerging-market profits never recovered. Forward margins—net profits expected by analysts this year and next—sit at 7.5% in emerging markets, compared with 12.8% in America and 8.9% in the euro zone. The gap is the widest it has been this century.
一大难题是新兴市场和富裕国家之间的利润差距日益拉大。在新兴市场回报率的全盛时期，即2007-09年全球金融危机之前，二者的回报率相差无几。但是不同于美国股市的公司，新兴市场历经金融危机之后利润不复从前。新兴市场的远期利润率（分析师预估的今明两年的净利润）为 7.5%，而美国为12.8%，欧元区为8.9%。该差异为本世纪以来最大。
注释：
heyday：Someone'sheyday is the time when they are most powerful, successful, or popular. 全盛时期
Several factors explain this. For commodity-exporting countries like Indonesia, Brazil and Mexico, enormous margins before the collapse of Lehman Brothers reflected sky-high prices of commodities as varied as soyabeans, oil, coal and nickel, rather than good management. Since then, prices have come back down to earth. Even at the Bloomberg Commodity Index’s recent peak, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it sat 43% below its high in that period.
多种因素促成了这一局面。就印度尼西亚、巴西和墨西哥等大宗商品出口国而言，雷曼兄弟（ Lehman Brothers ）公司破产前的一段时间里，市场产出的巨额利润并非通过良好的管理得来，而是源自于大豆、石油、煤炭和镍等多种大宗商品一飞冲天的价格。而自那以后，价格已大幅回落。即使是俄乌冲突后彭博大宗商品指数（Bloomberg Commodity Index）的峰值，与金融危机前的最高点相比也低了43%。
More than a fifth of the msci em Index is made up of state-owned enterprises, which are lumbered with responsibilities beyond profits. Many are also in energy and finance, which have had a poor decade. In the ten years to the end of June, state-owned firms in the index offered annual returns of 2.6%, against the 4.2% offered by their private counterparts.
MSCI新兴市场指数成份股中超五分之一是国有企业，他们除了创造利润外还背负着其他责任。其中许多企业来自于能源和金融行业——两大“颓”了十年的行业。截至六月底，过去十年间，该指数中的国有企业年回报率为2.6%，而私企为4.2%。
The change in which countries make up the index, something investors hoped would give them more exposure to fast-growing economies, has done little to help. In 2005 four markets—Brazil, South Africa, South Korea and Taiwan—each made up larger shares of the index than China. Now, Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong and the mainland account for a third of the index, by far the largest share.
投资者们曾希望指数中各国所占份额的消长能让他们获得增速最快经济体市场更高的敞口，然而这一变化作用甚微。2005年，巴西、南非、韩国和中国台湾这四个市场在该指数所占份额均大于种花家。如今，在香港和内地上市的种花家股票占该指数的三分之一，占有最大份额，其他新兴市场难以望其项背。
But despite economic growth, Chinese profits remain depressed. The msci China index sits, astonishingly, below its peak in dollar terms, which it hit in 2007. In 2013 Yu Yongding, then of the China Society of World Economics, a think-tank, said that the profit on a few tonnes of steel was “just about enough to buy a lollipop”. Overcapacity in crucial Chinese industries, which have been flooded with investment, is still a problem.
然而尽管经济增长迅猛，种花家市场的利润却依然低迷。令人惊讶的是，以美元计，当前的MSCI中国指数甚至还低于2007年的峰值水平。2013年，时任中国世界经济学会会长的余永定表示，几吨钢铁的利润“刚好购买一根棒棒糖”。种花家被过度投资的关键行业的产能过剩，现下仍是一个棘手的问题。
Will profits grow? it outsourcing offers a chance to pair the traditional emerging-market strength of lower wages with an increasingly digital global economy. But digitisation is also reason to be sceptical of an emerging-market resurgence. The rise of firms with large stocks of intangible assets, such as software and intellectual property, explains much of the increase in profits in the rich world, and America in particular. One estimate suggests that intangible assets, mostly undisclosed, were worth 90% of s& p 500’s market value in 2020, up from 50% in 1990.
利润会增长吗？IT外包提供了一个机会，让传统新兴市场的低工资优势能与日益数字化的全球经济相结合。但数字化也是我们对新兴市场复苏持怀疑态度的理由之一。拥有大量无形资产（如软件和知识产权）的公司的崛起，在很大程度上拉动了发达国家，尤其是美国公司利润的增长。一项估算显示，2020年，无形资产（大多数都未被公司披露）在标普500指数总市值中所占的比例由1990年的50%增长到了如今的90%。
Developing economies spend far less on r&d. Of those typically included in emerging-market indices, only South Korea and Taiwan surpass American r&d spending, which sits at 3.5% of gdp. The equivalent figure in China is 2.4%, and the government’s campaign against the country’s most successful consumer-tech firms—like Didi, in ride-sharing, and Alibaba, in e-commerce—bodes ill for intangible-focused firms. According to the World Bank, r&d investment runs to less than 1% of gdp in India, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa.
发展中国家在研究与开发（Research and deveopment）上的投入远远低于发达国家。在新兴市场指数中典型的国家和地区中，只有韩国和中国台湾有着超过美国的R&D投入（美国投入占其GDP的3.5%）。种花家R&D投入仅占GDP的2.4%，并且当局对于对头部的科技公司的一系列动作，比如didi（出行类）和ali（电商类），对偏重无形资产的公司来说是个坏兆头。根据世界银行的统计，R&D投资在印度，印度尼西亚，墨西哥，和南非占比GDP均小于1%。
注释：
R&D：研究与开发（Research and deveopment 的缩写）。Research and development: the part of a business that tries to find ways to improve existing products, and to develop new ones.
Firms that invest in intangibles are often found in bustling cities, of which emerging markets have no shortage. But they also need reliable governance and legal systems, so that investments can be protected from copycats. Openness to foreign expertise and cross-border collaboration are also crucial. Given the absence of these conditions in many developing economies, it may be a while until emerging-market returns, and thus the performance of emerging-market stocks, match those in the rich world.
投资无形资产的公司通常出现在熙熙攘攘的大城市中。倒不是新兴市场中没有这样的城市，只是可靠的管理体系和完善的法律体系同样重要：只有这样，才可以保护投资成果不受“学人精”的侵害。对国外知识技能持开放态度和积极开展跨境合作也至关重要。正因为很多发展中国家仍然缺乏这些条件，或许新兴市场的回报率和新兴市场股票的表现要经过较长一段时间才能赶上发达国家。
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