Cryptzero 加密币市值归零 | 经济学人社论高质量双语精翻

文 / 柳下婴（微信公众号：王不留）

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How crypto goes to zero

加密币市值归零的前提

The implosion of FTX has raised questions about the tech’s future.

加密帝国FTX倒闭，引发了人们对这项技术前景的疑虑

If everyone stopped using it. That, in five words, is how crypto would go to zero. Still, the journey is more interesting than the destination. The death of FTX, an exchange declared bankrupt on November 11th after a spectacular blow-up, will encourage some people to turn their attention elsewhere. What would have to happen for everyone to give up?

加密币市值归零的前提只有一个，这用五个词来说，就是每一个人都停止使用它（英语原文If everyone stopped using it是五个词——译者注）。然而，更有意思的是过程而非结果。11月11日，一家交易所在一场轰轰烈烈的内爆后宣布破产。随着FTX的死亡，一些人会将他们的注意力转移到其它地方。那么，让每个人都放弃，需要什么条件呢？

An answer requires a sense of how the industry works. At crypto’s base are blockchains, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which record transactions verified by computers, a process incentivised by the issuance of new tokens. The Ethereum blockchain validates lines of code, which has made it possible for people to issue their own tokens or build applications. These include stablecoins, which are pegged to real-world currencies, and tokens like Uniswap, which manage decentralised-finance (DeFi) protocols. Major chains and a handful of Ethereum-based tokens, like stablecoins, account for about 90% of cryptocurrency value. Big businesses have been built on top of this world, including exchanges, investment funds and lending platforms.

想知道答案，就必须首先了解这个行业是如何运作的。加密货币的基础是区块链，如比特币和以太坊，它们的作用是对由计算机验证的交易进行记录，这一过程的激励机制是发行新的代币。以太坊区块链验证代码行，从而使人们可以发行自己的代币或构建自己的应用程序。其中包括与真实货币挂钩的稳定币，以及管理分散金融（DeFi）协议的Uniswap等代币。主要的区块链和一些以太坊的代币，如稳定币，占到了加密货币价值的90%。包括交易所、投资基金和借贷平台在内的大型企业都是在这个基础之上建立的。

To take out crypto entirely would require killing the underlying blockchain layers. They could either give way first, kicking the stool out from underneath everything else. Or the industry could unravel from the top down, layer by layer like a knitted scarf.

要完全取消加密，就需要首先杀死底层的区块链层。摆在它们面前的有两条路：一、撤退，即把凳子从其他东西下面踢出去。二、该行业也可能会像针织围巾一样从上到下逐层分解。

Knocking the stool out is extraordinarily hard, and the current high value of bitcoin and ether makes it even harder. To attack a blockchain and shut it down requires gaining 51% control of the computational power or value of tokens staked to verify transactions. The more valuable the tokens, the more energy it takes to attack a proof-of-work chain, like Bitcoin, and the more money to attack a proof-of-stake chain, like Ethereum. The security of these chains—as measured by the amount someone would have to spend to attack them—is now in the region of $10bn to $15bn. It would require either a government or an extraordinarily rich individual to mount such an attack. And even if Elon Musk was so inclined, he seems a little busy at present.

把凳子撤出来异常困难，而以目前比特币和以太币的高价值，其难度更大。要攻击区块链并将其关闭，就需要获得51%的计算能力控制权或用于验证交易的代币价值。代币价值越高，攻击工作量证明链（如比特币）所需的能量就越大，攻击权益证明链（如以太坊）所需的资金就越多。这些链条的安全性（以攻击者必须花费的金额来衡量）目前在100亿美元到150亿美元之间。发动这样的攻击需要一个政府或者一个非常富有的人。即使埃隆·马斯克有如此打算，他现在似乎有点忙（没有时间做这件事）。

Unravelling is therefore the more conceivable path. The events of this year have revealed just how prone to this sort of thing crypto is. The implosion that seems to have set the chaos in motion is that of Terra-Luna, a decentralised stablecoin system, worth around $40bn at its peak. It collapsed in May, wiping $200bn off the market capitalisation of crypto. That led a few weeks later to the demise of several lending platforms and a hedge fund, events which wiped another $200bn off the market cap. The margin calls these platforms faced seem to have imperilled Alameda, the trading firm owned by Sam Bankman-Fried, and led to the decision to use FTX customer funds to plug the gap. When FTX failed, it wiped another $200bn off crypto’s market cap. Now other exchanges and lending platforms looks to be in trouble.

因此，拆散是更可行的途径。而今年发生的事件也已经证明这样的事情在加密界是多么容易发生。引发混乱的内爆事件似乎是Terra-Luna，一个分散的稳定货币系统，巅峰时期价值约400亿美元。它在今年5月崩盘，使加密货币市值蒸发2000亿美元。几周后，几家借贷平台和一家对冲基金倒闭，市值再蒸发2000亿美元。这些平台面临的保证金催缴似乎已经危及到萨姆·班克曼-弗里德（Sam Bankman-Fried，简称SBF）旗下的交易公司Alameda，以至于他不得不决定使用FTX客户资金来填补缺口。FTX倒闭后，加密货币市值又蒸发了2000亿美元。现在，其他交易所和借贷平台似乎也陷入了困境。

Beady-eyed readers will note that most of this stuff, apart from Terra-Luna, is in the “on top of” category and not actually on-chain tech. DeFi exchanges and lending protocols have continued to whir even as the enterprises more akin to normal businesses have imploded one by one. But the collapse of these enterprises could imperil the underlying tech by taking out chunks of its value, making the chains more exposed to would-be attackers and pushing miners or stakers to switch off their machines. The value of on-chain activity and tokens is self-reinforcing. The more people that use DeFi, the more valuable Ethereum becomes. The higher the price of ether, the higher the hurdle to attack the blockchain and the more confidence people will have that blockchains will endure. This also works in reverse. The more people shy away from crypto out of fear, the less secure it becomes.

目光锐利的读者也许会注意到，除了Terra-Luna，大多数这类东西都属于“顶级”类别，而不是真正的链上技术。DeFi交易所和贷款协议继续蓬勃发展，尽管更接近于正常业务的企业一个接一个倒闭。但是，这些企业的倒闭可能会危及基础技术，因为它们的价值会大幅缩水，使供应链更容易受到潜在攻击，并迫使矿工或股东关闭他们的机器。链上活动和代币的价值是自我强化的。使用DeFi的人越多，以太坊就越有价值。以太币的价格越高，攻击区块链的障碍就越高，人们对区块链的信心就越大。反之亦然。人们越是出于恐惧而回避加密币，它就越不安全。

The total market cap of cryptocurrencies is currently $820bn. That is 70% below the peak a year ago, but still high compared with most of crypto’s history. It is higher than at the start of last year, for instance, and any point before then, including the peak of the bull market in 2017. Many more layers—such as a major stablecoin, big businesses or perhaps other on-chain protocols—would have to unravel to take crypto’s value back to the levels at which it traded just three or four years ago. Crypto’s reputation has been undermined before. It has collapsed in value repeatedly throughout its lifetime. Although fewer people will use crypto as a result of the FTX collapse, it is very hard to imagine the number will be small enough to take its value to zero.

加密货币的总市值目前为8200亿美元。与一年前的峰值相比低了70%，但与大多数加密货币的历史相比仍然很高。例如，这一数据高于去年年初，也高于此前的任何时点，包括2017年牛市的峰值。更多的层面——如主要的稳定币、大企业或其他链上协议——将不得不被分解，以使加密货币的价值回到三四年前的交易水平。加密币的名声以前就被破坏过。在它的整个生命周期中，它的价值一再崩溃。尽管由于FTX的崩溃，使用加密技术的人会越来越少，但很难想象这个数字会小到足以将其归零。

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