征兆
Why central banks are dumping dollars for gold
为什么中央银行要“抛弃”美元“奔赴”黄金呢？
In 1968 the London Bullion Market closed for two weeks.
1968年，伦敦黄金市场一连关了两周。
The world’s largest precious-metal market had run out of gold, drained by a five-month run on America’s stash by European central banks.
由于欧洲央行对美国黄金储备长达5个月的挤兑，这个世界上最大的贵金属市场的黄金所剩无余。
The crisis marked the beginning of the end for the Bretton Woods standard that had kept the dollar pegged to gold, and currencies elsewhere to the dollar, since 1944.
这场危机标志着布雷顿森林体系开始走向终结。自1944年以来，布雷顿森林体系确立了美元将与黄金直接挂钩、其他国家货币与美元挂钩的关系。
Now central banks are furiously buying gold again.
现在各国央行又开始疯狂购买黄金。
In the third quarter alone 400 tonnes moved into their reserves.
仅在第三季度，它们的储备就增加了400吨黄金。
That has pushed the total from January to September to 670 tonnes, a pace unseen since the Bullion Market debacle.
由此，1月至9月的总进口量达到了670吨，这是自伦敦黄金市场崩盘以来从未出现过的交易速度。
In May Turkey snapped up almost 20 tonnes in one go.
今年5月，土耳其一口气抢购了近20吨黄金，
India and Qatar are also ravenous.
印度和卡塔尔也开始摩拳擦掌。
The metal now makes up two-thirds of Uzbekistan’s reserves, months after it planned to reduce gold to under half.
目前，黄金占乌兹别克斯坦外汇储备的三分之二，而几个月前，该国曾计划将黄金储量降至一半以下。
Kazakhstan is also doubling down.
哈萨克斯坦也在大力储备黄金。
In part this is because gold, snubbed in good times because it generates no yield, recovers its shine in times of volatility and high inflation.
这在一定程度上是因为，黄金在经济形势良好的时候因无法产生收益而受到冷落，但在波动和高通胀时期黄金的价值又会自动回升。
In the long run, it is seen as a store of value and, not tied to any individual economy, seems immune to local political and financial turmoil.
从长远来看，购买黄金是一种保值手段，与任何单个经济体无关，似乎不受当地政治和金融动荡的影响。
Central bankers may also think they are getting a bargain.
央行官员也可能认为他们捡到了便宜。
Even though it has resisted better than most, the price of the metal has dropped 3% this year.
尽管黄金比大多数其他资产都能更好地抵御通胀，但黄金价格今年已经下跌了3%。
Gold bugs expect a rebound.
而那些主张金本位的人预计金价还是会出现反弹。
Like in the past, however, buying gold bars is also a way to ditch some dollars.
不过，就跟过去一样，购买金条也是一种抛售美元的方式。
Except this time it is not Europe but emerging markets who grumble about the greenback.
只不过这次对美元不满的不是欧洲国家，而是新兴市场。
They need dollars to pay for imports and external debts.
他们需要用美元来支付进口和外债，
But their reserves are mostly made of treasuries, not actual banknotes.
但他们的储备主要是国债，而不是真正的钞票。
And as the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates, buoying yields, the value of government paper has dropped.
因为美联储提高利率、提振收益率，政府债券的价值已经下降。
Lesser central banks have taken this as a cue to swap them for precious metal rather than bet on the Fed taming inflation.
规模较小的央行已将此视为一个信号，转而买入贵金属，而不是押注在还在控制通胀的美联储身上。
Shadier motives are also at play.
除此之外还有更不为人所知的动机。
Gold provides a way to circumvent Western sanctions on Russia, much of whose reserves have been frozen since March and whose banks have mostly been disconnected from the dollar-based international-payments system.
黄金为规避西方对俄罗斯的制裁提供了一种途径。自今年3月以来，俄罗斯的大部分外汇储备被冻结，其国内银行大多已与以美元为基础的国际支付系统脱节。
Almost no central banks keep roubles as foreign-currency reserves.
几乎没有央行将卢布作为外汇储备。
For those countries that traditionally do a fair bit of business with the Kremlin—from Turkey to Turkmenistan—gold offers an alternative, if clunky, means of exchange.
对于那些一直以来就与俄罗斯有相当业务往来的国家而言，比如土耳其、土库曼斯坦，黄金为他们提供了另一种即使麻烦但可行的交换手段。
This motley group of emerging markets have been among the biggest buyers of gold this time around.
这些形形色色的新兴市场是本轮黄金热中最大的买家。
This is not something the West can do much about.
对此，西方国家能做的非常有限。
Russian gold is banned on the London market, but no one can get at its gold reserves, which are mostly sourced from its own mines.
俄罗斯黄金被禁止进入伦敦市场，但没有人能得到它的黄金储备，这些黄金大多来自俄罗斯自己的矿山。
And Russia’s central bank no longer reports how much gold it holds, making swaps impossible to track.
俄罗斯央行也不再公布自己所持有的黄金数量，交易无法追踪。
Moving the physical metal is a logistical headache, but it keeps transactions under the West’s digital radar, which is useful for those playing both sides—like Qatar or Turkey.
运送实物金属在物流方面也是一个让人头痛的问题，但它可以让交易在西方的数字雷达下进行，这对买卖双方都很有用，比如卡塔尔或土耳其。
The World Gold Council, a trade body, says unknown buyers account for a big chunk of this year’s bonanza.
贸易机构世界黄金协会表示，未知买家占了今年黄金热的很大一部分。
One consolation for the dollar is that no other currency is gaining ground.
让美元感到安慰的是，还没有其他货币能够挤压它的地位。
The portion of foreign reserves held in yuan globally has stalled this year.
人民币在全球外汇储备中所占的比例今年已经停滞，
The euro, yen and pound are treading water too.
欧元、日元和英镑也在原地踏步。
Central banks may have gold fever but there is no regime change on the horizon.
各国央行或许有淘金热，但短期内不会出现主导货币的更迭。
早在2022就看过这篇 没当回事 更早在过年的时候也听说过要涨也没当回事 。以后要对钱更上心一点
